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Ruling from the weekend Pick a lead

#1 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-April-18, 08:23



Matchpoints

What do you lead if on enquiry before facing the lead (and if you think there are alternatives give the appropriate splits):

a) 4 is announced as a cue bid
b) 4 is announced as undiscussed
c) 4 is announced as "it's MPs, do you want to try 4 in a moysian"

Basically at the table it was announced definitively that it was a or c, should have been announced as b, and actually was the other one of a or c.

I want to see what people think the normal leads are, because I disagree somewhat with the directors' interpretation (they ruled damage and adjusted to what they felt I'd lead if I'd been given the b option, but I don't think we got enough of the split)
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#2 User is offline   mr1303 

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Posted 2016-April-18, 08:54

I have no interest in 4S. What I want to know is the meaning of 2NT, 3H and 4H. Has declarer shown a heart stopper?

I think I lead a heart. I don't want to lead a trump or a club, and a spade looks too risky.
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#3 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-April-18, 09:07

View Postmr1303, on 2016-April-18, 08:54, said:

I have no interest in 4S. What I want to know is the meaning of 2NT, 3H and 4H. Has declarer shown a heart stopper?

I think I lead a heart. I don't want to lead a trump or a club, and a spade looks too risky.


2N nat, at least something resembling a heart stop
3 good hand
4 cue (A/K/0/1) presumably A or K
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#4 User is offline   WellSpyder 

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Posted 2016-April-18, 09:14

I think I am with mr1303 here - if I'm honest, I'm not at all sure my lead would differ with any of the possible explanations of 4 listed. Probably a heart in all cases since nothing else looks very attractive.
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#5 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2016-April-18, 14:06

Given the 1S bid, 4S will show values, which basically
covers a / c, i.e. I dont care about the 4S explanation.

I will go with hearts.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#6 User is offline   c_corgi 

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Posted 2016-April-18, 14:22

a) A
b) A. This sounds like another way of announcing it as a spade control.
c) Q. The explanation sounds sufficiently odd that they are probably having a misunderstanding. A bit guessy, but I try passive.
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#7 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2016-April-18, 14:23

View PostCyberyeti, on 2016-April-18, 08:23, said:


Matchpoints. What do you lead if on enquiry before facing the lead (and if you think there are alternatives give the appropriate splits):

a) 4 is announced as a cue bid
b) 4 is announced as undiscussed
c) 4 is announced as "it's MPs, do you want to try 4 in a moysian"

Basically at the table it was announced definitively that it was a or c, should have been announced as b, and actually was the other one of a or c. I want to see what people think the normal leads are, because I disagree somewhat with the directors' interpretation (they ruled damage and adjusted to what they felt I'd lead if I'd been given the b option, but I don't think we got enough of the split)
I rank
  • Q = Down the middle.
  • 6 = Could work but might pick up partner's trumps.
  • A = Declarer might be able to chuck losing s on major tops.
  • 6 = In case declarer has Qxx
  • 4 = Unlikely to be right on this auction.

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#8 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-April-18, 15:30

My views for what it's worth:

a) clearcut club, I think I'd lead A at the table, but 6 may well be better, I think if the small hand has a spade cue, it's unlikely to have anything in clubs and so is the strong hand. A has the advantage that you can switch to Q rather than playing a second club if you think you need to.
c) clearcut Q

b) I think is actually difficult, I suspect I lead Q most of the time, but I wouldn't rule out A or small spade.
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#9 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2016-April-18, 17:41

View PostCyberyeti, on 2016-April-18, 15:30, said:

My views for what it's worth:

a) clearcut club, I think I'd lead A at the table, but 6 may well be better, I think if the small hand has a spade cue, it's unlikely to have anything in clubs and so is the strong hand. A has the advantage that you can switch to Q rather than playing a second club if you think you need to.
c) clearcut Q

b) I think is actually difficult, I suspect I lead Q most of the time, but I wouldn't rule out A or small spade.

I think the club ace is clear cut on any explanation. It might beat the contract, and might save the overtrick.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#10 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2016-April-20, 15:42

East has clearly shown K with his 4 bid after West denied a club control, so A is out as long as EW are competent.

I would lead a passive heart on a and b. On c It is unclear and maybe A works better, I have no clue really how to take all this bidding on that case.
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#11 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-April-20, 17:45

View PostFluffy, on 2016-April-20, 15:42, said:

East has clearly shown K with his 4 bid after West denied a club control, so A is out as long as EW are competent.

I would lead a passive heart on a and b. On c It is unclear and maybe A works better, I have no clue really how to take all this bidding on that case.


E didn't have K, but W did.

I was told 4 was a cue, and thought neither of them had a club control, I banged down A which was disastrous when they had W: K7 E: QJ54 and W's hearts disappeared on them.

When dummy went down with xxxx and W said he was looking for the Moysian I felt I'd been misled. Opps clearly disagreed about the meaning, so the correct explanation was undiscussed.

The question is, what % of 5= and what percentage of 5-1 you would give.

There is nothing to the play, dummy xxxx, xxx, QJxx, Kx - declarer Ax, Ax, AKxxx, QJxx

A = 11 tricks
anything else including small club = 10 tricks
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#12 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2016-April-21, 03:19

View PostCyberyeti, on 2016-April-20, 17:45, said:

E didn't have K, but W did.

I was told 4 was a cue, and thought neither of them had a club control, I banged down A which was disastrous when they had W: K7 E: QJ54 and W's hearts disappeared on them.

The problem is that if you were told "undiscussed" you might still have concluded that they did not have a club control. That depends a lot as well on their cue-bidding style. I think that some percentage of 10 tricks is called for, perhaps 25%. Any more and I would be happy! The way the A failed was unrelated to the explanation.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#13 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-April-21, 03:43

View Postlamford, on 2016-April-21, 03:19, said:

The way the A failed was unrelated to the explanation.


No it wasn't, I knew E had no club control, if W had a spade control it made it much less likely he had a club control, that was my logic in thinking.
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#14 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2016-April-21, 05:04

View PostCyberyeti, on 2016-April-21, 03:43, said:

No it wasn't, I knew E had no club control, if W had a spade control it made it much less likely he had a club control, that was my logic in thinking.

Right, but the fact that you set up two discards with the ace of clubs lead was just bad luck. And I don't know how you could "know" East had no club control. And "undiscussed" still includes the most likely conclusion that 4 is probably a cue bid. If they had said "undiscussed" this is surely what you would have assumed, rather than the bizarre interpretation of the person who bid it. What percentage of one off did the charity commissioner TD give you?
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#15 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-April-21, 08:04

View Postlamford, on 2016-April-21, 05:04, said:

Right, but the fact that you set up two discards with the ace of clubs lead was just bad luck. And I don't know how you could "know" East had no club control.


E didn't bid 5 over 4 or carry on beyond 5, so I was sure he had no club control.
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#16 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2016-April-21, 10:50

View PostCyberyeti, on 2016-April-21, 08:04, said:

E didn't bid 5 over 4 or carry on beyond 5, so I was sure he had no club control.

But the bad luck was that his non-controls were the QJxx. Change that to Jxxx and it wouldn't be so bad.

#17 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-April-21, 11:44

View Postbarmar, on 2016-April-21, 10:50, said:

But the bad luck was that his non-controls were the QJxx. Change that to Jxxx and it wouldn't be so bad.


And that dummy which I didn't think had a club control due to the explanation had one, if dummy had xx and K as I expected, I still have time to lead a heart now even with declarer's holding.
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#18 User is offline   c_corgi 

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Posted 2016-April-21, 13:56

If 4S was bid as a place to play with a 4 card suit, I would expect him to have lots of values in spades and diamonds and nothing much in the rounded suits. Otherwise, why is he avoiding 3NT and not making a slam try? If he has a club control it is likely a singleton, in which case the A doesn't cost given your confidence that East has no club control.

I am not even convinced there was any MI - the fact that East's explanation is plausible, whereas West's is not seems like strong evidence of misbid rather than misexplanation.
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#19 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2016-April-22, 06:31

View Postc_corgi, on 2016-April-21, 13:56, said:

If 4S was bid as a place to play with a 4 card suit, I would expect him to have lots of values in spades and diamonds and nothing much in the rounded suits. Otherwise, why is he avoiding 3NT and not making a slam try? If he has a club control it is likely a singleton, in which case the A doesn't cost given your confidence that East has no club control.

I am not even convinced there was any MI - the fact that East's explanation is plausible, whereas West's is not seems like strong evidence of misbid rather than misexplanation.

But if you don't buy a lottery ticket by asking for a ruling, you can't win!
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#20 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-April-22, 06:54

View Postlamford, on 2016-April-21, 03:19, said:

The problem is that if you were told "undiscussed" you might still have concluded that they did not have a club control.


I reckoned it was about 50-60% with the correct explanation that I would have led a heart, so with the normal bias to the NOS we should have been awarded 60-70, we got 50 for a little below average.
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