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Psychology of the BBO random

#1 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2016-January-22, 20:44



BBO Main Bridge Club, IMP Pairs

LHO's profile
Country: USA
Skill: Advanced
Description: "sayc,3041/Mich/unt,/4waytransf/stand.disc/lavi.nt/Xsupp"

At this point, you decide,

(a) LHO lead 3rd-best from A?43, thus you play 5 or

(b) LHO lead 4th-best from AQ543 and isn't taking Q because (s)he can't count to 5, thus you switch to A?
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#2 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 03:03

I would just play line A) maybe they lead 3/5 or something or maybe it was a mislick, playing for a really bad mistake just seems to make no sense whatsoever
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#3 User is offline   diana_eva 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 04:34

I'd play him for a 3/5 lead too.

#4 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 05:43

I think I'd play for a 5-3 break because of E's 10,6,2 card order which would be odd from say 10642. However why didn't W duck the second heart ?

Can I ask E if they've agreed what leads they're playing ?
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#5 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 05:53

View PostCyberyeti, on 2016-January-23, 05:43, said:

Can I ask E if they've agreed what leads they're playing ?

Of course you can but it seems pretty pointless when they've obviously never played together before and have discussed exactly nothing.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
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#6 User is offline   Wackojack 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 06:18

Nothing that west has done makes any sense at all. Between you, you have pushed to boat out by bidding 3NT and it being imps you must try and make the contract if at all possible.

So what chance have you got? Certainly if West started with A43(x), then you make by playing another diamond. However, that being the case, Eat is poosibly feeling the squeeze holding QJ10, QJ104 and so by now playing AK you will also make.

Play another diamond and hope.
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#7 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 12:30

Strategy always wins out over tactics. If you examine the strategy needed for this hand playing low trick one favors lho underleading QT(xxx). This ia inconsistent with making 3n where
it seems almost necessary to have 2 heart stops. Trick 1 insert the J. We need 2 heart stops not 1 for 3n to have any real play. There are many more AQ(xxx) holdings than QT(xxx).
ANYWAY assuming we played low at trick 1.

At this point lho could have set us anytime by taking the dia Q and cashing hearts. It looks to me like lho led from Axx and are playing this ducking game since they have no really good options. Playing lho to be incapable of counting to 5 defensive tricks seems silly (though not impossible I suppose). Just lead another dia and get your ninth trick the only reasonable way you can.
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#8 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 12:40

First, you know that West's profile is not possible; unless you are 90 years you cannot be Advanced and have that "Description" line.

West led fourth from five hearts. East gave present count with 6. West hopes to get in with a black Q and then plans to cash red cards. I take line (b).
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#9 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 12:45

View PostBbradley62, on 2016-January-23, 12:40, said:

First, you know that West's profile is not possible; unless you are 90 years you cannot be Advanced and have that "Description" line.

West led fourth from five hearts. East gave present count with 6. West hopes to get in with a black Q and then plans to cash red cards. I take line (b).


huh?
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#10 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 12:55

View PostBbradley62, on 2016-January-23, 12:40, said:

First, you know that West's profile is not possible; unless you are 90 years you cannot be Advanced and have that "Description" line.

I think it's supposed to mean "advanced" at bridge, not at using a computer. ;)
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
    -- Bertrand Russell
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#11 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 15:56

View Posteagles123, on 2016-January-23, 12:45, said:

huh?

The description of what West plays looks very much like what a typical Intermediate player would have said in the late 1980s. (S)he is unlikely to be Advanced unless (s)he was already Advanced before 2/1 became popular in ACBL.
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#12 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2016-January-23, 20:26

View Postmgoetze, on 2016-January-22, 20:44, said:


BBO Main Bridge Club, IMP Pairs
LHO's profile
Country: USA
Skill: Advanced
Description: "sayc,3041/Mich/unt,/4waytransf/stand.disc/lavi.nt/Xsupp"
At this point, you decide,
(a) LHO lead 3rd-best from A?43, thus you play 5 or
(b) LHO lead 4th-best from AQ543 and isn't taking Q because (s)he can't count to 5, thus you switch to A?
IMO, you should choose line (a). -- the losing option If LHO has false-carded and then made a mistake -- but, in that case, you wouldn't post it here, as it would risk embarrassing your opponent :)
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#13 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2016-January-27, 12:29

I would think that a non-4th best lead is more likely than failing to trivially cash out the setting tricks. But bad players have done worse than this before. When you play with randoms, random things happen.

Or maybe it's a grosvenor?
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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