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Percentage play

#1 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2015-November-18, 03:12

Yorkshire county league match, R/R



Both declarers got a friendly heart lead but then they took different lines. One made it, the other went down.

What is the best line?
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#2 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2015-November-18, 04:58

Playing on spades probably makes when you can keep your trump losers to one. This is slightly above 50%.
Playing on clubs gives you better chances if clubs are 3-2 because opponents will have to waste a trump when we shed a diamond loser.
Given the heart lead on this bidding West is very unlikely to hold a singleton club.
This increases our chances that clubs break 3-2 to almost 80%.
Accordingly I would play on clubs before touching trumps.

Rainer Herrman
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#3 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2015-November-18, 05:01

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#4 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2015-November-18, 05:08

I suppose that you might be risking a third round Heart ruff if you give them time to ruff a club, cash a diamond and continue Hearts before you touch trumps. Probably needs the Spade Ace to be with the long hearts. Despite all that I go with the Clubs.

What are you doing in Yorkshire? Last I saw, you had just got a nice cushy job on the continent. (Not that I have anything against Yorkshire)
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

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#5 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2015-November-18, 05:34

Sorry, I should have added that the heart lead went to the 9 and jack. So the heart lead doesn't look like a singleton.

I choose to play on clubs which was successful because the third round got ruffed from ATxx. I felt very clever but afterwards I thought that maybe it wasn't such a great play since while W would probably have led a singleton club, she might also have led from a doubleton.

Jack: I am still in Amsterdam but visiting Harrogate quite often and still play for their club.
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#6 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2015-November-18, 15:03

View Posthelene_t, on 2015-November-18, 05:34, said:

Sorry, I should have added that the heart lead went to the 9 and jack. So the heart lead doesn't look like a singleton.

A doubleton (in either hand, but now presumably with RHO) still presents risks
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"

"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
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#7 User is offline   lorserker 

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Posted 2015-November-21, 02:34

if we take the lead in hand and start to play spades then we have an entry problem if the king is allowed to hold, because if we cross to hand in hearts again and play SQ taken by the ace, opponents will play clubs and we cant reach our hand to draw trumps. so we somehow end up playing clubs before drawing all trumps anyway, so maybe it's better to start with clubs to discard a diamond.
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#8 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2015-November-21, 05:10

View Postlorserker, on 2015-November-21, 02:34, said:

if we take the lead in hand and start to play spades then we have an entry problem if the king is allowed to hold, because if we cross to hand in hearts again and play SQ taken by the ace, opponents will play clubs and we cant reach our hand to draw trumps. so we somehow end up playing clubs before drawing all trumps anyway, so maybe it's better to start with clubs to discard a diamond.

If your only reason for playing on Clubs first is a fear that they let the Spade King hold, then you might as well play a Spade to the King then revert to Clubs when the Spade holds. You can be no worse off than playing Clubs first, and possibly marginally better off.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"

"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
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