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Lead problem, many choices
#1
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Posted 2015-August-31, 18:23
Your lead
Butler IMPs
#2
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Posted 2015-September-01, 05:24
!S J/T
Rho needs quite a few Kings/queens to expect to make 3n with us looking at all these aces. There seems to be little reason to not at least try my longest and strongest suit first and if p somehow has an entry the spade might be a killer.
Rho needs quite a few Kings/queens to expect to make 3n with us looking at all these aces. There seems to be little reason to not at least try my longest and strongest suit first and if p somehow has an entry the spade might be a killer.
#3
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Posted 2015-September-01, 09:25
♠ J/10 also.
The auction's over. Stop for a second and think about what you know from it. You hold 13 HCP and the opponents have voluntarily bid 3 NT. They should have somewhere near 26 points to do so. Even if they've pushed a little and hold, say, 24 points, Partner doesn't rate to have more than a K at most.
Even if partner has a trick somewhere, your side will need to set up another trick to defeat 3 NT. The only logical way to do that is set up a long suit trick in one of the hands. With partner holding so few points, it highly unlikely that the trick can be set up and accessed in partner's hand. The most likely place for additional tricks in your hand is the ♠ suit. Since it's a race to set up your long suit tricks before the opponents set up their 9 tricks, it's important to start ♠s immediately.
The normal lead from AJ10xx is either the J (standard leads) or 10 (coded 10/9 leads).
The auction's over. Stop for a second and think about what you know from it. You hold 13 HCP and the opponents have voluntarily bid 3 NT. They should have somewhere near 26 points to do so. Even if they've pushed a little and hold, say, 24 points, Partner doesn't rate to have more than a K at most.
Even if partner has a trick somewhere, your side will need to set up another trick to defeat 3 NT. The only logical way to do that is set up a long suit trick in one of the hands. With partner holding so few points, it highly unlikely that the trick can be set up and accessed in partner's hand. The most likely place for additional tricks in your hand is the ♠ suit. Since it's a race to set up your long suit tricks before the opponents set up their 9 tricks, it's important to start ♠s immediately.
The normal lead from AJ10xx is either the J (standard leads) or 10 (coded 10/9 leads).
#4
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Posted 2015-September-04, 05:43
The full hand:
So has to be a major ace, either will do. ♠A looks better, since you can switch if it looks bad.
Easy if partner is allowed to bid 3♠ with that, not my style.
So has to be a major ace, either will do. ♠A looks better, since you can switch if it looks bad.
Easy if partner is allowed to bid 3♠ with that, not my style.
#5
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Posted 2015-September-04, 08:04
On the given hand, the major A leads are the winners. I am certain that the ♥A is not the long run winner, and I doubt that the A♠ is superior to the ♠J/10. Simulation time? I should note in advance of seeing any simulation results that on some sims that the DD results may overstate the A lead single dummy results since after cashing an A it is often too early in the play to find the DD defense. Not that I suspect the A of ♠ to lead the DD results.
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