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Guess the MP score

Poll: Guess the MP score (44 member(s) have cast votes)

Guess the MP score

  1. 0-10% (3 votes [6.82%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 6.82%

  2. 10-20% (5 votes [11.36%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 11.36%

  3. 20-30% (2 votes [4.55%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 4.55%

  4. 30-40% (5 votes [11.36%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 11.36%

  5. 40-50% (1 votes [2.27%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 2.27%

  6. 50-60% (4 votes [9.09%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 9.09%

  7. 60-70% (6 votes [13.64%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 13.64%

  8. 70-80% (10 votes [22.73%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 22.73%

  9. 80-90% (5 votes [11.36%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 11.36%

  10. 90-100% (3 votes [6.82%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 6.82%

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#1 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 11:47

I don't know if this is a good idea as a topic type, but here goes.

8.5 tables, mixed field (even spread ranging from beginner+ to expert). The weaker half of the field will be playing Acol (weak NT, 4cM) while the stronger half will be split between Acol and SAYC. What would you estimate to be the MP score for N/S here?



Final result was 3S+1 for +170.
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#2 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 12:14

I think I like this type of topic.

What is the common opening bid for N hand in Acol?
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#3 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 12:22

totally guessing but I think it's like to be a pretty good score, 70-80 maybe
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#4 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 12:33

The beginners and Acol players will bid 1-1-3NT or 1-1-3NT.

On a diamond lead they will stick in the ten (second hand low) and play the spade honours in the wrong order, attempting to block the suit. However, there is no obvious way to go off, so they will rack up their contract.

Of course, I would not expect this to happen very often, except that OP was obviously shocked by the score ...
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#5 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 12:45

It looks like there are 5 possible/probable losers in spades, so ten tricks ought to be pretty good.

Then again, 3NT can be made on the likely diamond lead from either side. But will people really be playing there with a perfectly good spade fit?

I voted 80-90%, but am feeling a little less confident now, maybe 60-70 or 70-80 is more realistic.


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#6 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 13:20

At least half the Acol players will open 1 rather than 1, and most of them will rebid 2N and play there. The brave few who bid on with the S hand will play in 3N or 4S. Even if they pass, they've done better than spade part score whenever they get Ds right. And against any number of spades a reasonable number of defenders will lead 4th highest from their longest and strongest.

So I'm guessing about 25%.
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#7 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 14:09

View PostJinksy, on 2015-July-20, 13:20, said:

At least half the Acol players will open 1 rather than 1, and most of them will rebid 2N and play there. The brave few who bid on with the S hand will play in 3N or 4S. Even if they pass, they've done better than spade part score whenever they get Ds right. And against any number of spades a reasonable number of defenders will lead 4th highest from their longest and strongest.

So I'm guessing about 25%.

.. except that the score in question is +170, not +140. While NT does better than spades, +180 seems unlikely. At least, more than one or two of them.

There is the amusing possibility of east leading a low diamond, and then when back in, leading low again, blocking the suit. Even that seems only to lead to +150 though.
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#8 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 14:21

View PostPhilKing, on 2015-July-20, 12:33, said:

The beginners and Acol players will bid 1-1-3NT or 1-1-3NT.

On a diamond lead they will stick in the ten (second hand low) and play the spade honours in the wrong order, attempting to block the suit. However, there is no obvious way to go off, so they will rack up their contract.

Of course, I would not expect this to happen very often, except that OP was obviously shocked by the score ...


I also thought 3 NT will be reached 1-2 or 3 times, and 2 NT partscore after 1m--1sp--2NT. NT partscores will do bad vs +170. Not sure if anyone will open 2 NT playing acol.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#9 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 14:21

Safest contract at a safe level. Many will fail to bid game at all and spades offers the most opportunity for an overtrick(s). I guessed 70-80 with only 3nt really getting the best of them. Of course if east avoids a heart lead due to the bidding I will drop my estimate to around 40% (what was that 1h bid anyway):)
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#10 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 14:26

View Postmanudude03, on 2015-July-20, 11:47, said:


I don't know if this is a good idea as a topic type, but here goes.
8.5 tables, mixed field (even spread ranging from beginner+ to expert). The weaker half of the field will be playing Acol (weak NT, 4cM) while the stronger half will be split between Acol and SAYC. What would you estimate to be the MP score for N/S here?
Final result was 3S+1 for +170.

View PostMrAce, on 2015-July-20, 12:14, said:

I think I like this type of topic. What is the common opening bid for N hand in Acol?
Playing Acol, North might open 1 or 1. A likely auction:
1 - 1 -
2N - 3N AP
IMO 3N is likely to make, especially after K lead, so 3+1 might be a bottom.
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#11 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 14:36

Posters so far seem to have missed that the South hand may not respond (doesn't have "6 + " HCP)
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#12 User is offline   StevenG 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 14:37

Around here, many will go 2 (8 playing tricks or 18+, almost any shape (yech)) - 2 (relay) - 2NT - 3NT.
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#13 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 14:37

I don't know acol, but if the system requires a 1 opening bid, then I don't think I am missing much. So I expect that almost the entire field will see the auction proceed 1 1 2N, and most will then play it there.

If I were on lead as east with that hand and that auction, I would be very, very tempted to lead the heart K. I mean, Jxxx, even J9xx, is a horrible lead against notrump when the suit could well be 3=3=3 around the table, and even 4=3, with dummy holding 4 (altho that may be less likely if acol is a strictly up the line method even with very weak responding hands.

On a Heart K lead, N-S fall into 10 winners in notrump. Moreover, it is possible to see how 11 tricks can be won after that start, altho that would be ugly.

It is a small field, which tends to randomize score distributions.

I doubt that the hand would prompt a post if the score were average, and so I predict that 170 scored 1 or fewer mps. It was beaten by 2 or 3N bids by N and by 4S bidders by S.
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#14 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 14:40

View Postmikeh, on 2015-July-20, 14:37, said:

... 1 1 2N, and most will then play it there.

On a Heart K lead, N-S fall into 10 winners in notrump.

Yeah I overlooked this, three heart tricks come in.
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#15 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 16:30

View Postbillw55, on 2015-July-20, 14:40, said:

Yeah I overlooked this, three heart tricks come in.


Yeah but is K of a likely lead in the context of level of players? They will lead . Only 4 card suit E holds.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#16 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2015-July-20, 16:41

View PostMrAce, on 2015-July-20, 16:30, said:

Yeah but is K of a likely lead in the context of level of players? They will lead . Only 4 card suit E holds.

wait a second...we were told that some of the players were expert :P

And maybe the non-experts would missort their hands....with KQJx in hearts, they'd all lead one, lol.
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#17 User is offline   kerseyd 

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Posted 2015-July-21, 07:04

Surely some Norths will feel that this hand, with all four aces and five quick tricks, is too strong to open 1 and rebid 2N. If North opens 2N, then North is likely to play 4, and a lead is quite likely against this, allowing an easy ten tricks.
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#18 User is offline   kerseyd 

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Posted 2015-July-21, 07:11

Actually, on reflection, 4 by N can always be made. For instance, on a club lead, North can keep West off lead and eventually endplay East.
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#19 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-July-21, 07:22

View Postkerseyd, on 2015-July-21, 07:11, said:

Actually, on reflection, 4 by N can always be made. For instance, on a club lead, North can keep West off lead and eventually endplay East.


Actually you may be able to scramble 4 home from the south hand even on a heart lead.
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#20 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2015-July-21, 15:30

The standard English Acol auction is surely 1H, 1S, 2NT, Pass.

Of course, local clubs tend to attract local fads. In some clubs it might be fashionable to open a minor before a major, or open 2NT (or a Benji 2C) on a balanced 19.

But my guess is that 2NT making 8 Or 9 would be normal ...?
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