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Play 6N

#1 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2015-June-04, 02:56

Posting from phone so no diagram, sorry.

KJ
976
AQ9652
54

A53
AKQ
K
AJT872

IMPS. The auction is 2N-6N. Lead:HJ
Hi y'all!

Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
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#2 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2015-June-04, 03:05

I would play on diamonds and spade finesse, when J works we need diamonds 4-2 or better, a bit more than 40%, when it loses we still have 3-3 or J10 falling for another extra 20% or so, so over 60%.

Playing on clubs we need 3-2 with a honnor onside, 3/4 or 68% should be around 51%, we can't even catch KQxx onside as we will need to cash Q while on dummy, and might fall for west's trap if he ducks the club from Kx(x)
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#3 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2015-June-04, 03:06

Boring plan: Spade to the king, club hook, overtake diamond, another club hook.
The world would be such a happy place, if only everyone played Acol :) --- TramTicket
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#4 User is offline   goingoren 

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Posted 2015-June-04, 03:35

club hook should work 75%? of the time and be enough for small slam. lots of entries so i would go with this approach

edit : i like fluffy's plan better
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#5 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2015-June-04, 09:42

View PostFluffy, on 2015-June-04, 03:05, said:

I would play on diamonds and spade finesse, when J works we need diamonds 4-2 or better, a bit more than 40%, when it loses we still have 3-3 or J10 falling for another extra 20% or so, so over 60%.

Playing on clubs we need 3-2 with a honnor onside, 3/4 or 68% should be around 51%, we can't even catch KQxx onside as we will need to cash Q while on dummy, and might fall for west's trap if he ducks the club from Kx(x)


I don't think it is as clear as that. Say we overtake a diamond and hook a club and, if it holds cash the club ace. If West blows we still have some play for the contract by hooking the spade (JTx West or JT tight in either hand).
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#6 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2015-June-04, 14:02

In Fluffy's line you have an extra chance in clubs when the spade finesse wins but diamonds don't split.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#7 User is offline   Trick13 

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Posted 2015-June-04, 14:44

View Postgoingoren, on 2015-June-04, 03:35, said:

club hook should work 75%? of the time and be enough for small slam. lots of entries so i would go with this approach

edit : i like fluffy's plan better


Club hook is only 57.09%. You lose to every 4=1,1=4 break except 9-KQ64, 5=0, 0=5, and 3=2/2=3 with KQ off-side.
If your 7 was the 9 then it's 68.39%.
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#8 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2015-June-04, 15:47

View PostTrick13, on 2015-June-04, 14:44, said:

Club hook is only 57.09%. You lose to every 4=1,1=4 break except 9-KQ64, 5=0, 0=5, and 3=2/2=3 with KQ off-side.
If your 7 was the 9 then it's 68.39%.


Stiff 9 doesn't help you either, since you have to set up a diamond trick in order to pick up the putative KQxx.
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