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Match point defence decision

#1 User is offline   wizards 

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Posted 2015-May-15, 18:45

Let's not discuss the bidding and carding method, opinions will be welcomed on suggesting what to return here.

Match point scoring
Holding KQ76 AT2 5 AQ643
----------------you
(1D) p.(1H) 2C
(2D). P (3D). Ap

Partner lead C2, High from 2 cards, lowest from 3 cards or 4 cards

Dummy J8 KQ954 K82 JT5

You
KQ76
AT2
5
AQ643

Assuming you play CA, Déclarer C8,
What would you return? A sentence for reasoning would be welcome, thanks
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#2 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2015-May-15, 23:12

"Partner lead C2, High from 2 cards, lowest from 3 cards or 4 cards"

While you didn't want to info on bidding.. some things would be useful, especially at matchpoints. Things like what is the vulnerability (so you can judge if you should have competed to 3 or 4 perhaps so you know. I would also like to know in general if they play support doubles (so we know that south doesn't have 3) or that they don't play double of 2 to show four spades (so we know that we likely missed a 4-4 or better spade fit).

But ok, let's overlook all that, which makes figuring out the distribution difficult. South will surely have six diamonds or more. Dummy and East hold 25 points and south who freely rebid diamonds should have something more than minimum or great shape. If south has 15 HCP, partner has 0 HCP. If partner has the K, then declarer only has 12 hcp (and must have all the other unseen honors. So the fear is that declarer will knock out your A and then use long hearts to discard his spade losers. Taking something like 6/7 Diamonds, 1 spade, and four hearts (he has Jack and your 9 is falling). Even if your partner doesn't have the K, there is a reasonable chance declarer has the heart JACK.

So you have two lines of possible plays...
1) Lead the King and try to take 1, 1 and 1 holding them to 130. That will beat pairs playing in 2 or any number of notrump (when south has K and seven diamonds (they have 1. 1 and 7 for 150), if South has six diamonds only and the K, you will lose to those playing in notrump no matter what you do as they will be held to +120.

2) Decide your best chance to defeat 3 is for partner to have a singleton club. Then you lead the 2 (suit preference) for partner to ruff a club (suit preference), win the heart return and lead another club for him to ruff. That is one club, two club ruffs, and the heart ace for down one.

At matchpoint, leading the K is a clear winner in my mind. At imps, I would try for the unlikely club ruff instead as an extra overtrick is hardly worth worrying about there.


--Ben--

#3 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2015-May-16, 03:42

As inquiry pointed out, the vulnerability is really important on hands like this. I'll assume equal Vul.

I know you specifically asked not to discuss the bidding, but the failure to double on the previous round is a major error and greatly effects the rest of the play.

If partner does have a singleton club, and a club return beats 3D, then they must also have spade length (e.g [Axxxx Jxxx xxx x]) in which case we've already lost the board by not doubling on the previous round. So I think the best play in terms of Matchpoint EV, is to switch to the K and hope that we can salvage some MPs for -130 or -110.
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#4 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-May-18, 13:35

the bidding has gone (you are the dealer)
1d p 1h 2c
2d p 3d p
and you hold Ax(x) x AQJxxx K9x(x) what would you bid? I think 3n would be a huge favorite. The reason for this question is that once you think about it declarer is probably missing 1 of the following given the bidding SA DA CK or DQ.

If p has the CK or DQ we seem doomed to go -110 or -130 and maybe worse if we do not make a spade switch at trick 2. So what about the other missing cards DA and SA?

If p has the DA there is no big benefit to us unless p is short in clubs and the neat part is that switching to the spade K will still allow us to score up 5 tricks whenever p has a singleton club (unless declarer is specifically 1264 or 1174) p If declarer wins the ace and plays a trump p will rise with the ace and return a spade and we can return a club (2 asking for a heart) and return another club for a 2nd ruff giving 1S 1H DA and 2 club ruffs. Note that if p cannot ruff the club (because they started with 3 small nothing will have been lost and we will quietly go minus 110 after scoring up only CA HA DA and 1 spade trick.

If p has the spade A AND they are short in clubs when we switch to a spade at trick 2 they will discourage and when we hold the trick we can then return a club for p to ruff (the 2 asking for a heart) p leads a heart to our A and we give p another club ruff at which point they can try and cash their spade ace (for +50 or +100). If p is not short in clubs they will encourage and we will quietly go -110 or -130 depending on 1 or 2 spade tricks.

This means on close examination a switch to the spade K at trick 2 seems mandatory as it will leave us with our best chance to score all of our defensive tricks and still leaves open a couple of ways to defeat 3d when it was possible from the beginning. Returning a club at trick 2 is way too much putting all of your eggs in one basket and is only necessary when partner started with say Qxx in diamonds and a singleton club and even then we are -110 since declarer began with 12 or 21 64 and we cannot score more than CA HA and 2 club ruffs.
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