[Phil]

Q9x JT KQxxxx Kx

w/r, long matches

(1♠) - 2♥ - (4♠) - ?

1♠ is 10-15, 4♠ can be anything.

[gszes]

There is no reaaon to assume we have a fit (or that we do not). There is no reason to assume rho does not have the best hand at the table and is merely settling for game due to the limited nature of the 1s opening. We also have no reason to assume 4s is making since there is no strong clue why 4s was bid. For those with a lot of "adventure" in their hearts maybe x is best but with our own KQ in a 6 card suit (worth at best 1 hopeful trick) prospects for overall defense do not look great from our perspective especially since lho will undoubtedly play us for the spade Q.

X has to be right around 70% of the time to break even overall and I think one needs to be very optimistic to make that assumption.

Pass

[mgoetze]

Feel we have to pass, double can just go wrong in too many ways. 5♦ should presumably imply heart tolerance but how can we commit to the 5 level with Q9x in opps' suit? Good hand for their system, let's hope they have to open 1♣ on the next one.

[nige1]

 Phil, on 2015-May-10, 18:08, said:

w/r, long matches ♠Q 9 x ♥ J T ♦ K Q x x x x ♣ K x
(1♠) - 2♥ - (4♠) - ?
1♠ is 10-15, 4♠ can be anything.

IMO Pass = 10, 5♦ = 9, Double = 8, 4N = 5. Partner has another shot.

[helene_t]

I don't think anyone can make anything unless partner has enough to reopen. Dbl will probably induce a phantom sac.

Pass.

[mikeh]

What do we think is going on?

Give opener at least 10, partner 11+ and look at our (soft, soft, ugly) 12, and RHO doesn't have one of those 10-12 semi-balanced 4♠ calls that can lead to a lucrative penalty double.

I am not familiar with the tendencies of good big clubbers when holding, say, 4432 hands with 6 hcp and 4 spades but I don't think that it can be long-term winning bridge to bid game at unfavourable!

So I reason that RHO has more or less the same type of crap that most standard or 2/1 players have. Now I can infer 0-1 spade over there and hope for some diamonds. I would always bid 5♦ here against standard or 2/1 players, since it is too dangerous to pass.

I've gone for numbers before. I'll go for more numbers in the future. But while I tend to be chicken, I have slowly learned that fortune favours the (thinking) brave, so 5♦ it is. I just hope there isn't a lightning double on AJ9x on my left

Btw, this call shows nothing about hearts. I saw an earlier post suggesting that bidding diamonds here implied heart tolerance, but I think that that is an interpretation based on wishful thinking. There is nothing about the auction that says we don't simply have 7 or 8 diamonds, and indeed I wish I did.

Further btw, pass has some attractions on the basis that maybe nothing makes, as helene suggests. However, my Qxx is in the lock if dummy has long spades, and it isn't too hard to come up with a double-game swing layout....partner is say void AQxxxx Axxx xxx: what do we expect him to do over 4♠?

[foobar]

 mgoetze, on 2015-May-11, 05:07, said:

Good hand for their system, let's hope they have to open 1♣ on the next one.

Sounds ominous...should I be quaking in my boots when opening a strong ♣ against you ?

[WesleyC]

I've played a lot of strong club and Phil's description of the 4♠ bid as 'can be anything' just isn't right - even strong clubbers are forced to pay attention to the vulnerability. Given that the 3 other players have all shown values there aren't enough HCP left for RHO to hold a strong balanced hand so they are basically marked with a big fit and a shapely hand.

Once you've reached this conclusion, with no aces, an undisclosed 6 card suit and some great texture in hearts I think it's right to take insurance with 5D. Fairly often you'll be taking a phantom sacrifice, but if either 4S or 5D is making (which isn't at all unlikely) then bidding is likely to win big.

[Phil]

 WesleyC, on 2015-May-13, 07:04, said:

I've played a lot of strong club and Phil's description of the 4♠ bid as 'can be anything' just isn't right.

Why do people take me so literally?

[mgoetze]

 foobar, on 2015-May-11, 11:00, said:

Sounds ominous...should I be quaking in my boots when opening a strong ♣ against you ?

Oh, definitely.

I mean, I'm pretty sure that the best thing about playing strong club is the limited openings, and the 1♣ opening is something you live with so you can get the other stuff, but if you feel you actually gain on the 16-20 hands... well, good for you but I just have to suspect you're either wrong or playing against poor opposition.

[steve2005]

 WesleyC, on 2015-May-13, 07:04, said:

I've played a lot of strong club and Phil's description of the 4♠ bid as 'can be anything' just isn't right - even strong clubbers are forced to pay attention to the vulnerability. Given that the 3 other players have all shown values there aren't enough HCP left for RHO to hold a strong balanced hand so they are basically marked with a big fit and a shapely hand.

Once you've reached this conclusion, with no aces, an undisclosed 6 card suit and some great texture in hearts I think it's right to take insurance with 5D. Fairly often you'll be taking a phantom sacrifice, but if either 4S or 5D is making (which isn't at all unlikely) then bidding is likely to win big.

can be anything obviously overstating but in addition to the normal distributional raise in standard responder can have a very good defensive hand with no slam ambition planning on making 4♠. So when you bid 5♦ you could go for a number.

[akwoo]

Now I'm wondering if one should play 2 level overcalls against 1M as being slightly sounder against big clubbers (who presumably open !M a little lighter) than against everyone else, for the same reason that 2 level overcalls against weak NTs should be sounder than against strong NTs - partner needs information to decide on latter action.

[steve2005]

 akwoo, on 2015-May-13, 16:53, said:

Now I'm wondering if one should play 2 level overcalls against 1M as being slightly sounder against big clubbers (who presumably open !M a little lighter) than against everyone else, for the same reason that 2 level overcalls against weak NTs should be sounder than against strong NTs - partner needs information to decide on latter action.

Probably not, they will be in 11-15 pt range which % wise is the most common range for standard 12-21.

[WesleyC]

 steve2005, on 2015-May-13, 16:22, said:

can be anything obviously overstating but in addition to the normal distributional raise in standard responder can have a very good defensive hand with no slam ambition planning on making 4♠. So when you bid 5♦ you could go for a number.

If you look at the HCP distribution around the table:

Our hand has 11 HCP.
Give the 1S bidder an average of 12 HCP.
Give partner's 2H bid, an average of 10 HCP.
That leaves the 4S bidder with about 7 HCP.

A reasonable opponent bidding 4S with minimal HCP values is likely to have a shapely hand and a big fit.

5D might still go for a number, but you shouldn't be worried about responder having a good defensive hand.

[Phil]

 WesleyC, on 2015-May-13, 20:47, said:

If you look at the HCP distribution around the table:

Our hand has 11 HCP.
Give the 1S bidder an average of 12 HCP.
Give partner's 2H bid, an average of 10 HCP.
That leaves the 4S bidder with about 7 HCP.

A reasonable opponent bidding 4S with minimal HCP values is likely to have a shapely hand and a big fit.

5D might still go for a number, but you shouldn't be worried about responder having a good defensive hand.

But in this case, Opener could have 10, the overcaller could have 8, and our 11 leaves 11 for responder. So while responder probably has distributional shape it need not be the case.

So this means we are largely on a guess with a three-sided coin of double, pass and 5!d.

Frankly our hand isn't that great. The sQ is worthless and its aceless. Maybe the best we can hope for is void AKxxxx Axx xxxx which looks like the nuts but how will it play on a spade lead? You are pretty much relying on 22 trump at this point although the h9 is crucial.

Against that partner may have x AKxxxx xx QJxx that probably gets 500 if we double and 5D is a phantom.

Partner actually had void Axxxxx AT xxxxx. Teammates went down in 4s at the other table on a spade misguess. 5D went for 1100 NV (should have been 800).

[mike777]

Would have been in the 5d camp.
At worst expected: void...AKxxxx..AT....xxxxx

Never expected partner to have that hand. Now I know.

[steve2005]

 Phil, on 2015-May-14, 10:05, said:

Partner actually had void Axxxxx AT xxxxx. Teammates went down in 4s at the other table on a spade misguess. 5D went for 1100 NV (should have been 800).

What did 1♠ opener and 4♠ responder have?

[Phil]

I don't remember sorry.