[lamford]

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IMPs converted to VPs. Lead 2♠
The majority of the field in a strong national event were in 3NT here, and most received the lead of the two of spades to the ten and queen. How would you play? If you ask some questions you will find that leads are second and fourth, and that 1♣ includes all weak NTs without a five-card major, and, perforce, 4-4-1-4, and hands with natural clubs.

[manudude03]

Win ♠Q, ♥K, overtake ♥J and drive out the queen (throwing clubs).

If North wins, assume a spade continuation. Win the ace and cash out the hearts throwing more clubs. Hopefully North has been forced to pitch a spade to hold onto 3 diamonds and the king of clubs. Now play on diamonds hoping for the diamonds to set up (♦J falling in 2) or can arrange some minor suit endplay, but would need to use table feel for that.

If south won the ♥Q and returns a spade, I play as above. If however South returns a club, I go up with the ace and lead out the ♦K and Q if ducked.

[lamford]

.

[lamford]

manudude03, on 2015-February-16, 07:05, said:

Win ♠Q, ♥K, overtake ♥J and drive out the queen (throwing clubs).

There is certainly another line, possibly as good, or possibly not. I am still undecided, but will await some more suggestions.

[PhilKing]

Auction was same at my table but information was slightly different - they would open 1♦ with a 4432 shape, so that means there is one fewer pattern where eating the second heart is successful.

[gnasher]

lamford, on 2015-February-16, 10:21, said:

There is certainly another line, possibly as good, or possibly not.

A simpler line is to play ♥H and then run ♥J. That avoids the indignity of going down when hearts are 3-3 onside.

If the heart finesse wins, I lead diamonds from the top. This temporarily cuts me off from ♣A, but they'll have to give it to me eventually.

That's basically hearts 3-3 or ♦J doubleton, which seems better than what you get with the overtaking line.

[lamford]

gnasher, on 2015-February-16, 16:35, said:

A simpler line is to play ♥H and then run ♥J. That avoids the indignity of going down when hearts are 3-3 onside.

If the heart finesse wins, I lead diamonds from the top. This temporarily cuts me off from ♣A, but they'll have to give it to me eventually.

That's basically hearts 3-3 or ♦J doubleton, which seems better than what you get with the overtaking line.

Hearts 3-3 is by no means the end of the world if you play three rounds from the top. North has to play a spade and South may be unable to win a spade and even if he can you may still have a diamond position. You avoid the indignity of going down when there is Qx of hearts offside. The key is deciding whether North has KJx2, KJ92, K9x2 or the unlikely K542 in spades. Both lines have interesting endplay possibilities.

[PhilKing]

gnasher, on 2015-February-16, 16:35, said:

A simpler line is to play ♥H and then run ♥J. That avoids the indignity of going down when hearts are 3-3 onside.

This is not necessarily true. The indignity of going off with Qxx onside is still available!

[gnasher]

PhilKing, on 2015-February-17, 03:19, said:

This is not necessarily true. The indignity of going off with Qxx onside is still available!

I think you'd have to do something very silly to go down when that's the layout.

[rhm]

PhilKing, on 2015-February-17, 03:19, said:

This is not necessarily true. The indignity of going off with Qxx onside is still available!

I think the point is you are unlikely to make if the ♥Q is offside. The only thing South has to do is to switch to clubs. (Yes I know the ♦J could be doubleton)
Given the auction that South holds the ♥Q is not likely and it is even less likely that South has it doubleton.
However, I am not sure that it is a good idea to play on diamonds if the ♥J holds.
An attractive line looks to me to play a spade to the ace. If the heart queen drops we have 9 tricks
If North has ♥Qxxx we could play North for 4=4=1=4 with the marked singleton ♦A.
We can abandon hearts and duck a diamond completely and hopefully endplay North to return a club, playing him for something like ♠KJ92 ♥Qxxx,♦A,♣Kxxx.

Rainer Herrmann

[PhilKing]

rhm, on 2015-February-17, 05:06, said:

I think the point is you are unlikely to make if the ♥Q is offside. The only thing South has to do is to switch to clubs. (Yes I know the ♦J could be doubleton)
Given the auction that South holds the ♥Q is not likely and it is even less likely that South has it doubleton.
However, I am not sure that it is a good idea to play on diamonds if the ♥J holds.
An attractive line looks to me to play a spade to the ace. If the heart queen drops we have 9 tricks
If North has ♥Qxxx we could play North for 4=4=1=4 with the marked singleton ♦A.
We can abandon hearts and duck a diamond completely and hopefully endplay North to return a club, playing him for something like ♠KJ92 ♥Qxxx,♦A,♣Kxxx.

Rainer Herrmann

Well I think the point is there not much hurry to cash the third heart, particularly if opener can be 4432.

After two rounds of hearts hold and the ♦K loses to the ace, lefty clears spades (he started with KT92). You can win the second or third spade and continue diamonds. This gives up on the 4414 (and 4315, which may have led a club) stiff ace position, but otherwise is OK as long as you read the ending, and my view is that it is incredibly difficult for them to conceal the distribution when the position is this tight.

Righty wins the third diamond, West pitching an encouraging ♣2, and East plays the ♣J. You win the ace and West follows with the nine. Now you cash the fourth diamond and West pitches a spade winner ...

In hearts, West followed 63 saying he liked spades, and East followed 47, saying he didn't. Now you don't actually have a full count, but I think one of the two possible shapes is now an overwhelming favourite.

[wanoff]

I'd be tempted to run ♥J at trick 2.
You're now ok if N holds ♥Qx / Qxx or S has ♦Jx and ♥Qx / Qxx / Qxxx.

Also beating some 44(32) with QH though low odds

[lamford]

If North has KJ9x Qxxx Ax Kxx, then Phil's line of playing ace and jack of hearts and running it will work, if he reads the ending, although he will go down if North has K952 or K942 instead of KJ92, and he will also fail (in practice) to a singleton ace of diamonds, or to Qx of hearts offside of course. I played the king of hearts and overtook and cleared the hearts. North had Qxxx and continued with the king of spades. I won that and cashed the hearts. If North had started with something like KJ9x Qxxx AJx Kx he is triple-squeezed on the last heart. He was actually KJ9x Qxxx Ax Kxx and pitched a club, perforce, but now there is no way home as South had the J97 of diamonds and there was no position. My men weren't playing Smith Peters and would not have used them here I suspect.

I thought at the time it was more likely that the leader had K952 or K942 in spades, and that K9xx Qxxx AJx Kx or Kxxx Qxx AJx Kx were more likely than KJ9x Qxxx Ax Kxx, the actual layout. I also mused that the nine of spades could be with South, although I suspected not. In both the first two cases the last heart triple-squeezes North, and I still make when he has KJ9x Qxx AJx Kxx or KJ9x Qxxx AJx Kx. The hand I cannot cope with is the actual one. It is not clear to me, however, that my play gains over Phil's (except for Qx of hearts) as he can usually cope with the layouts that I was playing for if he reads the ending, and 4-4-3-2 was a less likely shape at his table. At the end of the day, his line worked and mine did not. Nuff said.

Interestingly, if North had Kxxx Qxxx A KJxx he needed to find the Merrimac Coup of the king of spades on the go, although cashing the ace of diamonds first is the same thing!

[gnasher]

PhilKing, on 2015-February-17, 05:22, said:

Well I think the point is there not much hurry to cash the third heart, particularly if opener can be 4432.

After two rounds of hearts hold and the ♦K loses to the ace, lefty clears spades (he started with KT92). You can win the second or third spade and continue diamonds. This gives up on the 4414 (and 4315, which may have led a club) stiff ace position, but otherwise is OK as long as you read the ending, and my view is that it is incredibly difficult for them to conceal the distribution when the position is this tight.

Righty wins the third diamond, West pitching an encouraging ♣2, and East plays the ♣J. You win the ace and West follows with the nine. Now you cash the fourth diamond and West pitches a spade winner ...

In hearts, West followed 63 saying he liked spades, and East followed 47, saying he didn't. Now you don't actually have a full count, but I think one of the two possible shapes is now an overwhelming favourite.

For me to have a problem at this point, I must have taken the second spade - if I'd held off in spades, dummy would have only hearts left.

The hands were either
    K109x Qxxx Ax Kxx - Jxx xx Jxx J10xxx
or
    K109x Qxx Ax Kxxx - Jxx xxx Jxx J10xx

What did RHO pitch on the last diamond? If it was a club, I can safely exit with a spade, because on the second layout the remaining clubs will be 2-2 and my hand will be high after ♣K is cashed.

So, I only have a problem if RHO pitched a spade.

In the first layout LHO had to discard as he did, whereas in the second he has done something clever. Against that, on the first layout RHO might have raised clubs, and he might have thoughtlessly pitched a club on the last diamond.

What methods do my opponents play after 1♣ (1♥), and how strong are they?

[gnasher]

lamford, on 2015-February-17, 09:26, said:

If North has KJ9x Qxxx Ax Kxx, then Phil's line of playing ace and jack of hearts and running it will work, if he reads the ending, although he will go down if North has K952 or K942 instead of KJ92 ...

No he won't. Phil exits with a spade, won by RHO who plays a club, but LHO is down to ♥Qx ♣K, and is endplayed.

[PhilKing]

gnasher, on 2015-February-17, 11:49, said:

So, I only have a problem if RHO pitched a spade.

In the first layout LHO had to discard as he did, whereas in the second he has done something clever. Against that, on the first layout RHO might have raised clubs, and he might have thoughtlessly pitched a club on the last diamond.

What methods do my opponents play after 1♣ (1♥), and how strong are they?

Lefty was very strong and they were playing pretty a pretty standard system. I know a raise to 3♣ would be semi pre, since it came up on another board, but I don't know about 2♣.

Righty pitched a spade on the last diamond.

lamford, on 2015-February-17, 09:26, said:

If North had started with something like KT9x Qxxx AJx Kx he is triple-squeezed on the last heart.

Very pretty, and the ending can't be misguessed I think.

[lamford]

gnasher, on 2015-February-17, 11:59, said:

No he won't. Phil exits with a spade, won by RHO who plays a club, but LHO is down to ♥Qx ♣K, and is endplayed.

I think you are mistaken, Andy. After the second heart holds, there is no winning line when North has K9xx Qxxx Ax Kxx with or without the jack of clubs. If you lead the king of diamonds, North wins and exits a small spade and if you win and exit a spade, South wins and plays a club through and North still has a diamond exit.

[gnasher]

lamford, on 2015-February-17, 19:33, said:

I think you are mistaken, Andy. After the second heart holds, there is no winning line when North has K9xx Qxxx Ax Kxx with or without the jack of clubs. If you lead the king of diamonds, North wins and exits a small spade and if you win and exit a spade, South wins and plays a club through and North still has a diamond exit.

That's not the line I was talking about. After the second round of spades we play two more rounds of diamonds. If RHO now plays a club, we win the ace and play a fourth diamond, reducing LHO to ♥Qx, ♣K and a spade of his choice. Doesn't that work?

I would be fairly confident of this analysis, but the words "there is no winning line" sound rather like "I used a double dummy solver", so maybe I've missed something.

[lamford]

gnasher, on 2015-February-18, 03:12, said:

That's not the line I was talking about. After the second round of spades we play two more rounds of diamonds. If RHO now plays a club, we win the ace and play a fourth diamond, reducing LHO to ♥Qx, ♣K and a spade of his choice. Doesn't that work?

We are both capable of defending a putative five-card ending correctly without a double-dummy solver. On the fourth diamond, North jettisons the king of clubs, keeping two spades including the king and the nine. Interestingly, your club pips would be good enough if South wrongly switches to a high club (North was dealt ♣K93), but that would be SEWoG at this level, as would be the failure to discard the king of clubs. Your presumed ending, for convenience:

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[gnasher]

It was a ten-card ending, wasn't it? But anyway, yes you're right. Well, not about what constitutes a serious error, but about the double-dummy chances of making.