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Better Contract

#1 User is offline   DavidChinn 

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Posted 2015-February-01, 22:09


IMPs; NV vs. Vul; Silent Opps
Opening lead a small diamond
Would 6H or 6NT more likely succeed?
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#2 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-01, 23:46

Vul or non-Vul?

The only difference I can see is that, at No Trump, in the rare case that RHO shows out on the first or second heart lead, you can bring home the bacon just over half the time with a spade finesse. So that's about a 4% advantage, off the top of my head.

But at NT, when the heart finesse fails with hearts 3-2, you go down at least 2 or 3. I don't want to calculate the difference in IMPs.
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#3 User is offline   akwoo 

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Posted 2015-February-01, 23:47

Hmm - two interesting play problems. I think 6 is more likely to make, but at MPs in a strong field, I'd want to be in 6N.

Note that in neither contract do you want to take a finesse!

At 6:

Spoiler


At 6N:

Spoiler

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#4 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-February-02, 15:14

I think I would rather play 6NT. I have no use for ruffs in the north hand - clubs will take care off all my pointy suit losers anyway. Also QTxx with west is not as bad; I can still hook the spade for the 12th trick.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#5 User is offline   Stephen Tu 

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Posted 2015-February-02, 17:22

I think 6H is better at IMPS.

Let's take a look at the relevant cases:
hearts 3-2, Q not dropping: (40.69%)
6H: need long hearts to have 2+ clubs, about 81% or so, so 33.17%
6nt: need squeeze, SQ with long heart or singleton/doubleton Q with short heart, this is about 51.3%, so 20.87%.
edge to 6h in this case about 12.3%

hearts 4-1, Q stiff on the right (so can't pick up the suit): 2.83%
6nt: you are done
6H: need player to have 2+ clubs, about 74.2% a priori (a bit better this in practice since no stiff club lead), but let's give 6nt the whole edge of 0.73% here

hearts 4-1, RHO has 4 to the Q: 11.30%
6nt: squeeze is about 45% so 5.09%
6h: need RHO have 2+ clubs, 74.2%, so 8.38%
edge here to 6h, about 3.29%

hearts 4-1, LHO has 4 to the QT: 8.48%
6H: you are down
6nt: finesse east for spade unless east shows out on spades (better than squeeze), 58.92%
edge here to 6nt, about 5%

hearts 4-1, LHO has 4 to Q but not T, 2.83%
6nt: finesse still 58.92% so 1.67%
6H: need LHO to have 3+ clubs, about 35% (slightly better than finessing in spades and hoping LHO has 3+ spades). 0.99%
edge to 6nt of .68%

hearts 5-0, LHO has 5: 1.96%
6H: you are down
6nt: finesse east spade, ~63.88%
edge 6nt of 1.25%

hearts 5-0, RHO has 5: 1.96%
6H: can make double dummy in some cases but I think down in practice
6nt: you've made

so I get total edge to 6H of:
12.3-0.73+3.29-5-.68-1.25-1.96 = 5.97%

Edit: bonehead error on last section
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#6 User is offline   DavidChinn 

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Posted 2015-February-02, 19:05

Thanks for the suggested lines of play and analyses.

David
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#7 User is offline   akwoo 

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Posted 2015-February-02, 19:18

Never mind - I was wrong.
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#8 User is offline   akwoo 

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Posted 2015-February-02, 19:24

Also, when hearts are 4-1 with LHO, there are club splits which will make the squeeze better than the spade finesse. Since you get to decide after finding out the club split, the odds are slightly better for NT. (Again this isn't enough to affect the answer, and I'm really making tiny little quibbles at this point.)
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#9 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2015-February-03, 01:51

If you can find a route to either contract that is more likely to inhibit a Diamond lead, that would be more influential as to which is the better contract than any analysis of the lie of the cards.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"

"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
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#10 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2015-February-03, 06:53

As an aside, shouldn't 6 also be an option at IMPs?
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
-gwnn
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#11 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-February-04, 12:43

6NT

Spoiler

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#12 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2015-February-06, 07:00

View Post1eyedjack, on 2015-February-03, 01:51, said:

If you can find a route to either contract that is more likely to inhibit a Diamond lead, that would be more influential as to which is the better contract than any analysis of the lie of the cards.

Looking up the hand it sppears that North was dealer and the choice is between 6 or 6NT by North and 6 by South. In 6 it is unlikely that a diamond would have been led. The OP was dealer and, not surprisingly for N/B, went down in 6NT after missing the squeeze. 6 was not an option because North chose to rebid 1NT and South went directly to 6 without passing Go, thus putting their partner in jail and spawning this $200 question! :)
(-: Zel :-)

Happy New Year everyone!
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#13 User is offline   kuhchung 

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Posted 2015-February-06, 12:21

Is now a good time to point out that this doesn't belong in the N/B forum?
Videos of the worst bridge player ever playing bridge:
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#14 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2015-February-06, 16:47

View Postkuhchung, on 2015-February-06, 12:21, said:

Is now a good time to point out that this doesn't belong in the N/B forum?


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#15 User is offline   kuhchung 

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Posted 2015-February-06, 17:41

I wouldn't want to start a flame war about who said who was a novice, and who never made that claim.
Videos of the worst bridge player ever playing bridge:
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#16 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2015-February-07, 04:41

Haha I doubt that anyone really cares (incl N/B players). It was just a nice question.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"

"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
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#17 User is offline   99_lvl 

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Posted 2015-May-14, 15:00

View PostStephen Tu, on 2015-February-02, 17:22, said:

I think 6H is better at IMPS.

Let's take a look at the relevant cases:
hearts 3-2, Q not dropping: (40.69%)
6H: need long hearts to have 2+ clubs, about 81% or so, so 33.17%
6nt: need squeeze, SQ with long heart or singleton/doubleton Q with short heart, this is about 51.3%, so 20.87%.
edge to 6h in this case about 12.3%

hearts 4-1, Q stiff on the right (so can't pick up the suit): 2.83%
6nt: you are done
6H: need player to have 2+ clubs, about 74.2% a priori (a bit better this in practice since no stiff club lead), but let's give 6nt the whole edge of 0.73% here

hearts 4-1, RHO has 4 to the Q: 11.30%
6nt: squeeze is about 45% so 5.09%
6h: need RHO have 2+ clubs, 74.2%, so 8.38%
edge here to 6h, about 3.29%

hearts 4-1, LHO has 4 to the QT: 8.48%
6H: you are down
6nt: finesse east for spade unless east shows out on spades (better than squeeze), 58.92%
edge here to 6nt, about 5%

hearts 4-1, LHO has 4 to Q but not T, 2.83%
6nt: finesse still 58.92% so 1.67%
6H: need LHO to have 3+ clubs, about 35% (slightly better than finessing in spades and hoping LHO has 3+ spades). 0.99%
edge to 6nt of .68%

hearts 5-0, LHO has 5: 1.96%
6H: you are down
6nt: finesse east spade, ~63.88%
edge 6nt of 1.25%

hearts 5-0, RHO has 5: 1.96%
6H: can make double dummy in some cases but I think down in practice
6nt: you've made

so I get total edge to 6H of:
12.3-0.73+3.29-5-.68-1.25-1.96 = 5.97%

Edit: bonehead error on last section

OMG, how do you do this? :blink:
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#18 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2015-May-14, 16:34

View Post99_lvl, on 2015-May-14, 15:00, said:

OMG, how do you do this? :blink:


Suit distributions can be looked up. (Stephen Tu, I am not suggesting that you don't know them by heart). The rest is thoughtful analysis.
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