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slam lead problem #1243

Poll: slam lead problem #1243 (13 member(s) have cast votes)

lead?

  1. trump (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  2. heart ace (11 votes [84.62%])

    Percentage of vote: 84.62%

  3. diamond (1 votes [7.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.69%

  4. club (1 votes [7.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.69%

  5. small heart? (lol) (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#1 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-November-22, 08:59

IMPs, unknown opps.


4 = nat, strong 12-14 (not pree)
5 = 2 keys, no Q

Lead?
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#2 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-November-22, 09:02

On similarly uninformative auctions, Bird and Anthias found ace leads stood way out. Only thing to deter you from one here is P's failure to X 5, but I wouldn't personally do so with less than KJ in the suit, so I doubt that's much of a factor. Your best chance is prob hitting P with a singleton anyway.
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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#3 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2014-November-22, 09:57

8d
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#4 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2014-November-22, 13:20

heart ace

Declarer either has long dia or long hearts. If they have
long diamonds (along with Kx of hearts) we need the red suits
to split in a way that will not allow declarer to toss enough
hearts on the diamonds to avoid 2 heart losers. That is asking
quite a bit though our club distribution increases the chances
of that holding from happening.
If declarer has long hearts the opening heart ace followed by
a heart might be the winner outright if p can ruff trick 2 and might
even be a winner if p has Q(x) of spades and dummy hits with AJ(xx) or
KJ(xx) of spades and a singleton heart (declarer might ruff with the top
spade and then lead the J intending to finesse p out of their supposed
Q(xx) of spades). Winning a trick with the trump TEN in the opps ten card
trump suit would rate to be a strong morale boosting experience :))))))))

Even odder if p has 2 hearts declarer might still ruff high and misguess
how to play spades figuring we would only lead the heart ace of we were
trying t give p a ruff (and they would be right about that anyway)
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#5 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2014-November-22, 16:34

club, partner's lack of double is the key, it will be easy to find dummy with singleton heart and 2 or 3 clubs
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#6 User is offline   mikestar13 

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Posted 2014-November-22, 16:52

Heart Ace, but with no real conviction at imps. (Better at matchpoints--could be worth something to stop the overtrick if slam can't be beaten). Wouldn't be surprised if a club turns out right. A diamond would surprise me--it would be a better lead if partner had the quick entry. No reason I can see for a trump. A low heart against a slam with these cards--if I have a substantial bet on opponents winning this tournament.

P.S. A real advertizement for uninformative auctions: slam makes whenever it should, and a fair amount of the time it shouldn't if you can't find the right lead.
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#7 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2014-November-23, 14:42

A. This auction only makes sense if opener has a strong side suit on which to pitch cards from dummy in suits where opener has losers.
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#8 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-November-23, 16:06

The full hand is a triumph for Bird/Anthias:


You may argue pard should have doubled 5. But the fact is he didn't.
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#9 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2014-November-26, 13:06

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-November-23, 16:06, said:

You may argue pard should have doubled 5. But the fact is he didn't.

An argument against doubling is that if partner's red suits were switched, they would want the A lead. And, of course, north must pass in tempo, or there will be unauthorized info.
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#10 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2014-November-26, 14:59

View PostBillPatch, on 2014-November-26, 13:06, said:

An argument against doubling is that if partner's red suits were switched, he would want the A lead. And, of course, partner must pass in tempo, or there will be unauthorized info.


Ya doubling when you have both red kings seems silly.
The artist formerly known as jlall
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#11 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2014-December-02, 10:01

View Postmikestar13, on 2014-November-22, 16:52, said:

. . . .
P.S. A real advertizement for uninformative auctions: slam makes whenever it should, and a fair amount of the time it shouldn't if you can't find the right lead.

A real advertisement for cue bidding against a good field when possibly missing a cashing AK combination in a possible suit slam auction. With only the A in opening leader's hand 85% of those polled found the winning lead. 100% would find the lead if they had AK. With the AK in hearts in third hand it is mandatory to double 5 for the lead. If the A is in 3rd hand in a minor the absence of the heart double it is at least a 50% chance for a set(50% lead from cashing K + 50% leads from singleton. Only in the odd case where the missing A is in third hand and W does not double the heart reply to KKB will we miss cashing the first two tricks when we have cashing AK. Altogether it is less than a 40% slam missing a cashing AK combination.

It should be noted that the OP responder's bid took up all space below game for cue bidding, so there is no room for below game slam tries, and so all cue bidding must be above game, so there was possible ambiguity in finding the missing AK combination.

P.S. On this side of the pond the word is spelled "advertisement." Use an American spell checker. In Arizona, like Ohio, English is not spoken, only understood.
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