[zenbiddist]

IMPs versus a scratch partnership:

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After a huddle, West leads the ♦7 to East's king. East switches to the ♣2

[ggwhiz]

Fly with the Ace and play the ♠J?

[mikeh]

I expect LHO to be 4=4=3=2.

he chose to lead from xxx in diamonds because his majors are not strong, and he feared hitting dummy's 4 card major(s). RHO led the club 2 back.

It seems to me weird that he didn't switch to spades. It seems weirder that he switched to the club 2, since that usually signals interest in the suit, and on this auction that makes almost no sense.

If I hook, and it wins, I still need to bring in the heart suit for 3 winners and no losers.

However, since I am playing LHO for 4 hearts, I will place him with the Q. Now, if my reading is correct, I can pick up the suit for 4 winners and the club hook becomes an unnecessary risk.

I win the A, play the heart K (NOT the diamond Q..I need that card!). I advance the J and presumably LHO covers with Q9xx and ducks with Qxxx (hoping I hold KJ tight in that case). Say he covers...now we see why I needed the diamond Q still....back to that card, then my last heart to the 8, and cash the reds.

Even at mps or bam I'd play the same way...making 3N is a top/win, and I don't need to try to take 2 club tricks.

This will be a spectacular fail if I have misread the cards.

[PhantomSac]

West might have 4 diamonds with 97xx though right? (we are given no info on their leads but the 7 is the normal one in my book). I think cashing the DQ then running the HJ (and if covered running diamonds) is better to get more of a count, it only loses compared to your line when LHO has 5 small hearts which I think is unlikely.

[mikeh]

PhantomSac, on 2014-November-19, 15:37, said:

West might have 4 diamonds with 97xx though right? (we are given no info on their leads but the 7 is the normal one in my book). I think cashing the DQ then running the HJ (and if covered running diamonds) is better to get more of a count, it only loses compared to your line when LHO has 5 small hearts which I think is unlikely.

Planning to play hearts to be 3-3 if LHO proves to have 97xx in diamonds? I agree.

[zenbiddist]

They hadn't discussed leads or carding, but they weren't the types to be using 3/5ths. I figured it was probably 97x, 7xx, 7x, J97 or 97xx, which usually gives you four diamonds.
So you can back yourself to make four hearts and reject the club hook.

I didn't feel confident enough to guess hearts and hope for a fruitful diamond layout (and I have some perverse attraction to suicidal psychological plays), so I took advantage of the impression and tried CQ (held), then SJ. LHO won SQ and returned a club

[gnasher]

Is there really much risk in playing ♣Q? The 2 very much suggests that RHO has the king, and even if LHO has it he may not switch to spades. There are two reasons for finessing:

- If we get two club tricks, we don't need the long heart.
- If the heart finesse loses, we go only two down instead of three.

At matchpoints we could also add the consideration that the finesse avoids losing to anyone who has stumbled into 4♥ and finds the hearts 3-3 onside.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2014-November-20, 02:37

[jdeegan]

You are off at least 4♠ and a ♦ unless the opponents are permanently bad. Picking up the ♦ suit boils down to finding the J97 opposite xxx. No muy bueno, but what else is left except ♣ Kx on your right - a virtual non-certainty (imo) on the play.

Play the ♣ ace and go for it! You have slim or no chance w/o 3 or 4 ♥ tricks anyway. I hate to give up the ♣ hook, but better the ♥ than the ♣. Good players have a habit of making you guess sooner than you want.

Count! You do not have 9 tricks with 2♦, 4♥, and 2♣.

[zenbiddist]

Unless ♦7 was a singleton or doubleton lead, you have four diamonds (safe to rule out 3rds/5ths), so the main question at this stage of the play seems to be whether you rise with the ♣A and take four hearts and four diamonds.

If I was better at piecing together clues and figuring out probable hand patterns, I think I would prefer to do that. The psychological line has lots of appeal when it succeeds though! Might work when ♦7 was from shortage, or when ♥Q is unexpectedly with RHO.

Ps: This hand is further proof of a ridiculous theory I have that releasing the beer card early in the defence suggests you can't see how to take the contract off (else why abandon all hopes of a free beer?)