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Simple evaluation question

Poll: Simple evaluation question (28 member(s) have cast votes)

What's your evaluation?

  1. 3D invitational (27 votes [96.43%])

    Percentage of vote: 96.43%

  2. 2H GF (1 votes [3.57%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.57%

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#1 User is offline   humilities 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 10:02



Regional Swiss with an occasional partner, we play pretty vanilla 2/1. Regarding opening bids, we open all 12s and decent unbalanced 11s; we do not open balanced 11s.

Do you consider this an invitational hand (our bid for this is 3D) or a GF hand (2H 4sf followed by 3D)? Obviously this is better than it's face value of 11, is it good enough to force 5D? Will you pass 3NT?

Possibly relevant details:
- we haven't discussed 1444, so I don't know if he'd bid this way with that shape
- I'm pretty sure he would not bid this way with any 1345
- If you bid 2H (4SF) you cannot get out in 4D after a failed 3NT attempt (should you want to do so). You are 100% game forced.

Thanks for your input.
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#2 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 10:09

AAK is great but we do have a balanced hand and yet I can easily imagine 3NT playing poorly opposite some minimum openers. 5 looks like a good target but we still need partner to have a little something extra, so it's 3 for me.
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#3 User is online   mycroft 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 10:34

Is partner going to pass a flat 14 or an 1=3=4=5 15 when you invite? Better GF then. My partners won't.
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#4 User is offline   NickRW 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 10:51

Dunno. If you fg you'll find a few games you wouldn't otherwise. If you invite you'll avoid a few bad games. Personally I'd invite - but it is extremely close.
"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.
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#5 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 11:27

Invite. If pard accepts, I think I'll steer away from 3NT.
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#6 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 13:39

+1 for the invite
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#7 User is offline   humilities 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 13:44

OP here, thanks all for the feedback, I too felt this was an invite.

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?
It is impossible to believe in individual autonomy while simultaneously believing in a right to well-being supported by others.

Sometimes I use big words I don't fully understand to make myself seem more photosynthesis.
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#8 User is offline   TylerE 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 13:57

Red @ IMPs? Why haven't I bid 3N yet? Unless partner is opening a lot of really bad hands (which he shouldn't in 2nd) we should be making at least the 32% of the time or so we need to to show an IMP gain in the long term.
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#9 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 14:12

View Posthumilities, on 2014-November-10, 13:44, said:

OP here, thanks all for the feedback, I too felt this was an invite.

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?

If partner wanted my input he could have asked for it. Pass.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
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#10 User is offline   masse24 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 15:27

View Posthumilities, on 2014-November-10, 13:44, said:

when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?


The thought would not cross my mind. I have described my hand.
If partner wanted to go slamming, he could have initiated a slam conversation. He didn't.
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#11 User is offline   mikestar13 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 17:12

View Posthumilities, on 2014-November-10, 13:44, said:

OP here, thanks all for the feedback, I too felt this was an invite.

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?


Obvious pass. If partner accepts we are in a game force, so he can bid 4 with slam interest. 5 is a sign off opposite an invitation, as 3NT would have been.
3NT should be OK if partner bids it, he won't do so without good heart cards, as the lead is marked on this bidding.
Partner can accept by bidding 3 if he needs heart help, which you will deny by bidding 4/5.
Note that 4 by you (a limited hand) in this sequence can be passed.
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#12 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 22:30

3D for me. If pd bids 5 I will pass.
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#13 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-November-10, 23:17

View PostTylerE, on 2014-November-10, 13:57, said:

Red @ IMPs? Why haven't I bid 3N yet? Unless partner is opening a lot of really bad hands (which he shouldn't in 2nd) we should be making at least the 32% of the time or so we need to to show an IMP gain in the long term.


"Why haven't I bid 3N yet?"
Because pd has shown 9 cards in the ms and the H lead is pinpointed. This seems like a good reason not to bid 3NT.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#14 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2014-November-11, 01:45

View Posthumilities, on 2014-November-10, 13:44, said:

OP here, thanks all for the feedback, I too felt this was an invite.

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?

I invited, partner accepted, there's nothing else to think about.
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#15 User is offline   mcphee 

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Posted 2014-November-11, 02:14

I feel that bidding 2H 4th suit is a massive overbid, it is not even a close choice IMHO.
3D is what this is worth.
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#16 User is offline   NickRW 

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Posted 2014-November-11, 03:21

View Posthumilities, on 2014-November-10, 13:44, said:

Followup question: when partner jumps to 5D over 3D, what are your thoughts about raising?


To be fair, I'd think "gosh I've got a good invite with controls" and think about it for a second. Then sanity would prevail. As others have pointed out, there were heaps of other things partner could have done other than pass or sign off in game.
"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.
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#17 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2014-November-11, 03:59

View PostTylerE, on 2014-November-10, 13:57, said:

Red @ IMPs? Why haven't I bid 3N yet? Unless partner is opening a lot of really bad hands (which he shouldn't in 2nd) we should be making at least the 32% of the time or so we need to to show an IMP gain in the long term.

The first priority at IMPs is to bid the safest game when bidding game.

As the Hog says, the lead is pinpointed. Partner has at least 8+ minor cards (and probably 9+ a good part of the time). That doesn't leave much room for many s. If the opponents hold 9+ and your side has a single stopper, your side will have to have 9 running tricks to avoid being set. Do you see anything in your hand that makes you think that might be the case? Additionally, if you bid 3 NT, the lead will be through partner's stopper whatever it may be.

If you invite with 3 and partner bids 3 NT, you'll sit. Then, at least a lead will be coming toward partner's stopper. On a good day, that may even allow partner to create a 2nd stopper or potential 2nd stopper.

If partner bids 3 over 3 looking for help, you'll retreat to 4 and partner can decide whether to bid the game or not.

Then, you've given it your best shot.
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#18 User is offline   humilities 

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Posted 2014-November-11, 06:57

OP again - thanks all for the feedback. I bid the hand as suggested here (3D, pass) however my partner's argument was twofold:

1. It seemed a bad idea to him to make a slam try with only one keycard opposite an invitational hand
2. With three keycards opposite a jump to 5D, how could 6 not have a decent play? (obviously he thought he could make 5 missing all those cards)

His argument is logical, which is why I thought I'd get some feedback. Thanks!

his hand, fwiw,
x
KJ
AQxxx
KQJ10x

Obviously I could construct a 5D bid for him that has no play for 6 (spade void and Qxx of H or some such) but I think most 5D bids will have a good play for 6D, so I see his point...

This post has been edited by humilities: 2014-November-11, 07:06

It is impossible to believe in individual autonomy while simultaneously believing in a right to well-being supported by others.

Sometimes I use big words I don't fully understand to make myself seem more photosynthesis.
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#19 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2014-November-11, 07:07

There is a lot of really impressive hand evaluation in this thread. Game is excellent opposite some pretty ordinary minimums, eg:

x Kxx Axxxx KQxx

Partner will be wowed by your judgement when 12 tricks roll in.

And game is virtually solid opposite a monster such as:

x xxx AQxxx KQJx

It's not exactly farfetched to assume partner is suitable, since he is pretty likely to have a stiff spade if you think about it. Hands such as:

Kx Qx Axxxx KJxx

will generally just rebid 1NT, and with a 3154 minimum, partner raises spades. Give partner an extra length card somewhere and game will generally be better still. x Kx AJ98xKJxxx.

And if anyone cares whether these are just constructions off the top of my head, they are not. They all occurred in the FIRST TEN HANDS of a short simulation on the playbridge generator. It's a clear game force imo, and then there is no need to double-cross partner later.
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#20 User is offline   humilities 

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Posted 2014-November-11, 07:14

View PostPhilKing, on 2014-November-11, 07:07, said:

There is a lot of really impressive hand evaluation in this thread. Game is excellent opposite some pretty ordinary minimums, eg:


Dammit Phil, I was just starting to feel good about my bidding. I don't need you and your fancy "data" ruining my comforting cloak of conformity and conventional wisdom!
It is impossible to believe in individual autonomy while simultaneously believing in a right to well-being supported by others.

Sometimes I use big words I don't fully understand to make myself seem more photosynthesis.
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