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Pass or bid? X over 5 level preempt, vul vs not

#1 User is offline   diana_eva 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 03:09

IMPs. Exp +++ Stars etc team match on BBO (that is, aspiring WC with zero credentials mixed up with star players in random partnerships).


What would an expert do?
What would intermediate/advanced Joe do?

Double isn't discussed, take your best guess.

#2 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 04:08

Is there any alternative to 5 NT if one decides to bid?

I mean..our options are;

-Pass
-5M
-5 NT
-6
-6

5M is silly because the M we choose may not be held 4+ cards by pd, and he will have no idea about correcting it to our better fit. 6 has the same problem. 5 NT asks pd to pick a slam, and this is what we have. I know we may be cold for grand, but there is no way I can investigate it without risking to land on our best fit at 5 level. I may even go down in 6. But it also depends on the tendencies of doubler.

The decision between pass or bid; I don't know other folks, but you can bet your paycheck that I ain't passing. 2 bullets? A void in opponents suit? A very small, if any, chance of not finding a fit or landing on a wrong fit? Oh yeah, I am bidding. And I am bidding 5 NT.Posted Image
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#3 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 04:15

yeah i bid 5nt. floating the double with no diamonds would be pretty weird though could easily be a winner, not least because my random starry partner most likely has a penalty double which he could't bring himself to pass with.
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#4 User is offline   PhilKing 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 05:30

Anything could be right, and against some opponents I would bid 5NT.

But against myself I think the percentage action is to pass.
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#5 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 06:39

I'm passing. Looks like too much risk of slow losers in a 5-level contract, never mind a slam (and I agree with MrAce on the relative merits of all the non-pass bids).
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#6 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 06:57

As the opponents are meant to be good, I am certainly bidding. I agree that 5M is the value bid, but which one. I am bidding 5NT as at least I will be in the right strain if not the right level. Playing with a weak [partner I will pass.
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#7 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 07:18

5NT pick a slam. We're not going to get rich defending 5 so there.
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#8 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 08:09

I agree with Phil and Wank that passing can be the winner vs a very aggressive LHO. Sometimes you do not need big numbers like 1100 or 1400 for a big score. +300 at this table and +100 at other table makes hell of a big score.


But also there is something that looks unusual in this auction. If 5 bidder is a joker, why is RHO so silent? Is it because

a-Pd doubled with 2-3 card diamonds at 5 level which makes him likely to hold a huge hand that can not possibly pass?
b-RHO hiding a fit because he does not want us to play slam/grandslam?
c-As Wank said, did pd not resist and made a penalty(ish) double?
d-Is RHO holding a very defensive hand and waiting to axe whatever we are about to bid?

Some of us believe preempts always work, some of believe they sometimes work, some of us believe they usually work, some of us believe unless you have a textbook preempt they rarely work. I do not know which group LHO falls into, on this particular hand it worked. Preemptor, whether sound or joker or standard preemptor, hit my pd and my hand at the same time. So I have to act as if this is a standard preempt hand. Because if this is a hand that my team mate will not open 5, me and my pd is already way behind other pair on this auction, obviously. And there is nothing I can do about it. But my duty is to try and do better or at least duplicate the score at the other table if LHO has a clear 5 bid.
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#9 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 08:47

I used to bid aggressively in these high-level double auctions, and all too often ended up a level too high, while we could have done nicely had I passed.

My take on the double is that it is probably best for advancer to assume his partner has a strong 1N type of hand when he doubles at the 5-level.

Had partner opened 1N, even with an announcement that he hasn't got much in diamonds, would we be looking for slam?

I know it is the current fashion that all direct doubles are takeout, but surely once we get to this level the double become more 'values'. Advancer is expected to pass most of the time, and indeed the weaker he is the faster he passes, absent great shape. So the double isn't purely takeout and I just don't think that our hand looks like a slamming dummy after I bid 5N, which btw is to my mind the clear action if one wants to pull.

I know...we may miss a grand and collect 300. But partner rates not to hold the magic cards, and we do have some reason to be leery of playing in a 4-4 major suit fit (assuming that's where we end up).

I pass. I hate it.

As for RHO passing, I don't see why this makes bidding any clearer. If RHO has a smattering of cards with major suit length, why would he bid? He has some defence, and most of the time his LHO will be passing anyway.
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#10 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 09:07

View PostMrAce, on 2014-October-30, 08:09, said:

But also there is something that looks unusual in this auction. If 5 bidder is a joker, why is RHO so silent?

I think RHO will almost always pass in this spot. He knows that we have a guess and that we could easily let them play 5 in a 12-card fit. In this case even a 13-card fit.

Besides, if LHO is a joker, maybe RHO knows his partner.
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#11 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 11:19

View Postmikeh, on 2014-October-30, 08:47, said:

As for RHO passing, I don't see why this makes bidding any clearer. If RHO has a smattering of cards with major suit length, why would he bid? He has some defence, and most of the time his LHO will be passing anyway.


It does not. I never said it makes it clearer to bid. And as I said +300 or more can easily be a very good score for us. There is no safe heaven after such a heavy preempt hit both my pd and me with at least 25+ hcp, white vs red and left us with 1 shot decision.

Having said that, I can debate on the merits of doubling with a strong NT hand. I would never double if I have diamond honor(s) with a strong NT hand. I know it sounds ironic. But while you expect pd to pass more often, I expect totally the opposite when my RHO preempts at 5 level and I hold 2-3-4 card in his suit. Pd will often have stiff or void and some shape to bid on. With those hands I pass. Is it safe to do so? No, as nothing is. But to me, it requires more than a strong NT hand or a strong NT hand w/o values in preempt suit.

Let's don't forget another important thing; when we have 2-3-4 cards in preempt suit, and some values in that suit, pd who has shortness is still alive on balancing seat. We still have a hope that pd can double in pass out seat. And if he does not, I am more than happy to defend 5. In this context, whether my pd has a strong NT hand w/o diamond values, or 18+ with diamond values, my chances of making slam increases by a lot. Try placing a 16 hcp to pd w/o diamond values, or try placing 18+ hcp with a totally wasted A or KQ you will see shooting for slam is % action.

And all of this if, a very big IF, pd is doubling with a balanced hand. Pd will double also with A LOT OF other hands.
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#12 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 11:21

5NT, first reaction was 6D for the fun, but it by passes
6C, hence 5NT.

X is T/O.

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Marlowe
With kind regards
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#13 User is offline   diana_eva 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 11:31

OK, thanks all. I was trying to determine whether X is 100% penalty or not (5th level, are we still in takeout mode?).

The full deal was:




I was North and I passed (didn't even cross my mind to X with that hand). Partner asked me afterwards why I did not double. I said "I didn't want you to pull it" and he explained 5th level doubles are always penalty. I found that curious, as I would have assumed even if a 5th level X can be passed, it still should show something other than long diamonds.


So there, just a sanity check post.

#14 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 11:42

Was gonna say with a random on BBO I definitely pass since they might have good diamonds.

Playing real bridge I would guess to bid 5N but am not that convinced by it.
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#15 User is offline   chasetb 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 12:17

Definitely a pass with BBO randoms. With any very good player, I expect it to be takeout, but left in 95%+ of the time. With our hand, I would expect a double fit, but with no intermediate honors, the trump suit likely stacked against us (if I get to the right/longest suit), and two bullets, I am happy to sit for it. Give me a 6-4-3 hand, and that makes it more difficult.
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#16 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 12:48

View PostMrAce, on 2014-October-30, 11:19, said:

It does not. I never said it makes it clearer to bid. And as I said +300 or more can easily be a very good score for us. There is no safe heaven after such a heavy preempt hit both my pd and me with at least 25+ hcp, white vs red and left us with 1 shot decision.

Having said that, I can debate on the merits of doubling with a strong NT hand. I would never double if I have diamond honor(s) with a strong NT hand. I know it sounds ironic. But while you expect pd to pass more often, I expect totally the opposite when my RHO preempts at 5 level and I hold 2-3-4 card in his suit. Pd will often have stiff or void and some shape to bid on. With those hands I pass. Is it safe to do so? No, as nothing is. But to me, it requires more than a strong NT hand or a strong NT hand w/o values in preempt suit.

Let's don't forget another important thing; when we have 2-3-4 cards in preempt suit, and some values in that suit, pd who has shortness is still alive on balancing seat. We still have a hope that pd can double in pass out seat. And if he does not, I am more than happy to defend 5. In this context, whether my pd has a strong NT hand w/o diamond values, or 18+ with diamond values, my chances of making slam increases by a lot. Try placing a 16 hcp to pd w/o diamond values, or try placing 18+ hcp with a totally wasted A or KQ you will see shooting for slam is % action.

And all of this if, a very big IF, pd is doubling with a balanced hand. Pd will double also with A LOT OF other hands.

I wasn't suggesting that partner could hold 4 cards in their suit...the hand would have to be incredibly strong to do that...a maximum 2N opener or better.

But with KJxx AKxx Kx KQx am I really going to pass 5 and expect partner to be able to reopen red v white at the 5-level? And if he does, wtf do I do now? Passing then bidding 6 seems guaranteed to have partner fingering his neck, feeling the noose that you have just fastened around him.

Kxx AQx KQxx Kxx is a different hand and one on which there is too much risk of partner having the shape to bid 5M, so here I pass and expect you and me to be on the same page on this one.

It's a fine line and not one that I think many players ever discuss even in fairly tight partnerships. I've played in several 'serious' partnerships with really good players and don't recall ever having a specific discussion of this. This is one reason I love BBF even tho the bridge content seems to be diminishing and even tho the thread is based on a silly notion from real life (not silly by the OP...silly by the person who suggested N double).
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#17 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 13:12

Mike I must be much worse in English that I thought I was. The hand you gave KJxx AKxx Kx KQx has 19 hcp and I advocate this hand to double. If you read again I meant to say a doubler, if balanced, should have either

a-strong NT hand without diamond values such as KJxx AKxx xx KQx (you can even make it 3 card diamond)
b-IF has diamond values, it should be 18+

What I was suggesting to pass with a strong NT hand over 5 was something like Kxxx AKxx Axx Qx.

EDIT: By strong NT hand I meant 15-18 hcp, and I thought you meant that as well. Or did you mean a hand which is strong and has NT shape?
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#18 User is offline   mycroft 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 13:51

I certainly believe that, no matter what the card says is "takeout through...", after that (and possibly before that, too), doubles are "penalty, but pull with the right hand" (vice "takeout, but I expect you to pass a lot"). I can't imagine a double of a preempt short of 7 where partner is expected to do something no matter what 13 she has.
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#19 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 16:26

Seriously, what kind of expert says to a pickup P 'double of (opening bid) is always (anything)'. Obviously people play these things different ways - hell, half a dozen people might even be daft enough to play it his way.
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#20 User is offline   diana_eva 

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Posted 2014-October-30, 17:07

View PostJinksy, on 2014-October-30, 16:26, said:

Seriously, what kind of expert says to a pickup P 'double of (opening bid) is always (anything)'. Obviously people play these things different ways - hell, half a dozen people might even be daft enough to play it his way.


To be fair, the expert was OK. This was a friendly postmortem, not the "????? why didn't you double, you moron" kind of comment in public chat. We discussed if we shd X and who should X and he thought it should be me, because at that level X is always penalty. He didn't seem very convinced about it, probably just resulting.

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