BBO Discussion Forums: Suit combination with bidding inferences - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Suit combination with bidding inferences

#1 User is offline   Jinksy 

  • Experimental biddicist
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,907
  • Joined: 2010-January-02
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2014-October-23, 03:24



Three questions:

1) How do you play the D suit for one loser a priori?
2) Does the bidding change your line?
3) Do you agree with 2N by E, or is it too wet? (alternatives are pretty standard - X for TO and 3N)
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
0

#2 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 13,902
  • Joined: 2009-July-13
  • Location:England

Posted 2014-October-23, 03:45

If they lead a doubleton spade, I may not care.

Spade to 10/Q/ruff
A and if all follow
J to Q
K/A/ruff
small heart towards dummy, if N ducks my second heart goes away, if he flies the A and returns a heart, I win the K
6 to 8, pitch 2 diamonds on major winners, run Q and I don't care what happens to it, I'm only losing 1 at most

1) I think a priori you run the Q then run the 9
2) It looks like N has 6 hearts and S has 8 spades, so S has 8 spades and 2 hearts, obviously if he follows to 2 clubs you cash A
3) 2N/3N both plausible
0

#3 User is offline   lamford 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,417
  • Joined: 2007-October-15

Posted 2014-October-23, 04:01

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-October-23, 03:45, said:

If they lead a doubleton spade, I may not care.

Spade to 10/Q/ruff
A and if all follow
J to Q
K/A/ruff
small heart towards dummy, if N ducks my second heart goes away, if he flies the A and returns a heart, I win the K
6 to 8, pitch 2 diamonds on major winners, run Q and I don't care what happens to it, I'm only losing 1 at most

1) I think a priori you run the Q then run the 9
2) It looks like N has 6 hearts and S has 8 spades, so S has 8 spades and 2 hearts, obviously if he follows to 2 clubs you cash A
3) 2N/3N both plausible

If they lead a trump then you do not have enough entries to establish and enjoy your major suit winners safely. And you may go down if North has Qx in spades. I think you play the eight of clubs on an initial trump lead, hoping to get back into your line.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
0

#4 User is offline   Jinksy 

  • Experimental biddicist
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,907
  • Joined: 2010-January-02
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2014-October-23, 04:12

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-October-23, 03:45, said:

6 to 8, pitch 2 diamonds on major winners, run Q and I don't care what happens to it, I'm only losing 1 at most


Why? It doesn't seem like you've achieved anything - you still have three diamonds to play and the ability to ruff the fourth, and you still lose if N has the K and you misguess the J.

Quote

1) I think a priori you run the Q then run the 9


This works iff S has either honour, right? Small to the 9 then running the Q looks better to me - you win if N has both honours or neither or the J only or stiff K.

Quote

2) It looks like N has 6 hearts and S has 8 spades, so S has 8 spades and 2 hearts, obviously if he follows to 2 clubs you cash A


Y, makes sense. You still lose if S started with KJx, but that doesn't seem very likely now...

Quote

3) 2N/3N both plausible


Which is plausibler? :P
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
0

#5 User is offline   Jinksy 

  • Experimental biddicist
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,907
  • Joined: 2010-January-02
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2014-October-23, 04:16

View Postlamford, on 2014-October-23, 04:01, said:

If they lead a trump then you do not have enough entries to establish and enjoy your major suit winners safely. And you may go down if North has Qx in spades. I think you play the eight of clubs on an initial trump lead, hoping to get back into your line.


He specified if they lead a .
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
0

#6 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 13,902
  • Joined: 2009-July-13
  • Location:England

Posted 2014-October-23, 04:43

View PostJinksy, on 2014-October-23, 04:12, said:

Why? It doesn't seem like you've achieved anything - you still have three diamonds to play and the ability to ruff the fourth, and you still lose if N has the K and you misguess the J.



Because N if he wins the K has to play another diamond resolving the position for you or giving you a ruff and discard.

The end position is something like



It doesn't matter where the diamond cards are, you're only ever losing one if you run the Q, there is no guess.

And Lamford, yes I specified on a spade lead that looks like a doubleton, if N has Qx/Ax, he will have led the honour if he leads a spade so there is little risk.
0

#7 User is offline   mgoetze 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,942
  • Joined: 2005-January-28
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Cologne, Germany
  • Interests:Sleeping, Eating

Posted 2014-October-23, 05:13

View PostJinksy, on 2014-October-23, 04:12, said:

Small to the 9 then running the Q looks better to me

How is small to the 9, run Q better than small to the Q, run 9?
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
    -- Bertrand Russell
0

#8 User is offline   Jinksy 

  • Experimental biddicist
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,907
  • Joined: 2010-January-02
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2014-October-23, 05:33

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-October-23, 04:43, said:

Because N if he wins the K has to play another diamond resolving the position for you or giving you a ruff and discard.


*head hit keyboard*

Right...
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
0

#9 User is offline   Jinksy 

  • Experimental biddicist
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,907
  • Joined: 2010-January-02
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2014-October-23, 05:37

View Postmgoetze, on 2014-October-23, 05:13, said:

How is small to the 9, run Q better than small to the Q, run 9?


I'm not sure it is. If I were confident what the best play was I wouldn't have asked :P

I can't see anything to choose between them, though. Both seem to lose to split honours with N having at least a doubleton if the wrong honour is in the wrong place and work otherwise.
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
0

#10 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 13,902
  • Joined: 2009-July-13
  • Location:England

Posted 2014-October-23, 06:13

View PostJinksy, on 2014-October-23, 05:33, said:

*head hit keyboard*

Right...


In fact small to the 10 may be better still, it has the same effect most of the time, but S is more likely to have stiff K than N is to have stiff J and that makes you the overtrick.
0

#11 User is offline   johnu 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,835
  • Joined: 2008-September-10
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2014-October-23, 13:09

View PostJinksy, on 2014-October-23, 03:24, said:


1) How do you play the D suit for one loser a priori?



After they lead a diamond, I play low from dummy, win as cheaply as possibly, draw trumps, and ruff a diamond if necessary.
0

#12 User is offline   Cthulhu D 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,169
  • Joined: 2011-November-21
  • Gender:Not Telling
  • Location:Australia
  • Interests:Overbidding

Posted 2014-October-23, 18:05

Suitplay suggests that the answer to 1 is small to the 9 unless they come up with the J (cover) or the King (duck)

If you assume that N has 6 hearts and south has 7 spades, the best line doesn't change.
0

#13 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 13,902
  • Joined: 2009-July-13
  • Location:England

Posted 2014-October-24, 03:34

View PostCthulhu D, on 2014-October-23, 18:05, said:

Suitplay suggests that the answer to 1 is small to the 9 unless they come up with the J (cover) or the King (duck)

If you assume that N has 6 hearts and south has 7 spades, the best line doesn't change.


I'd assume S had 8 spades, N might well bid 5 with 3.
0

#14 User is offline   Cthulhu D 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,169
  • Joined: 2011-November-21
  • Gender:Not Telling
  • Location:Australia
  • Interests:Overbidding

Posted 2014-October-26, 06:31

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-October-24, 03:34, said:

I'd assume S had 8 spades, N might well bid 5 with 3.


If S has 8 spades and 6 Hearts suitplay wants to lead small from AT432. If South only has 7 spades, it wants to lead small from AT432, but leading the 5 and covering with the T is almost, but not quite, as good.

As that comparison is interesting, let's call small from AT432 A and the 5 from QT5 as B

A wins when the suit breaks Kxxx - J, Jxxx - K, xxx - KJ, xx - KJx, x- - KJxxx and V - KJxxx (in the sense that it goes off one less on the Hawaiian break).

B wins against K - Jxxx, Jxx - Kxx, J - Kxxx. All other breaks are the same trick expectation.

Here is the table of odds and trick expectation produced: http://i.imgur.com/weaRV3H.png

With the vacant spaces set: http://i.imgur.com/OsAmaNi.png

Side note, I wish I could be as good as suitplay when deciding the best line in a suit!

edit: If you only have two entries to dummy, it wants to start with the 5 up to the 10.
0

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users