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Do you have any chance?

#21 User is offline   wanoff 

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Posted 2014-October-18, 10:01

View PostMrAce, on 2014-October-17, 13:24, said:

The more I read this thread, the more I see methods tailored to find the right contract on this particular deal, the more I chuckle.
But to be fair, I failed to predict 1-2 NF (not even F1) will be suggested.


I too had a little chuckle when I saw Acol being described as a tailored method. I've not heard that one before.
You're probabably more familiar with 1-1NT-2x-3m which is usually a 7cd minor.
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#22 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-October-18, 11:41

View Postwanoff, on 2014-October-18, 10:01, said:

I too had a little chuckle when I saw Acol being described as a tailored method. I've not heard that one before.
You're probabably more familiar with 1-1NT-2x-3m which is usually a 7cd minor.



I was not talking about the system itself, but usage of it, when one decides to skip the cheaper and longer suit and bids shorter when choosing his 2/1 response, just because pd happens to support hearts it is normal to think that the auction is tailored for the result. I can easily construct hands where bidding 2 NF leads to a part score that does not make when slam is cold in club suits, but if Acol players say this hand bids 2, then let them be. It's their gain on this hand and loss on another. It looks always gain on forums, while IRL it shows different success rate Posted Image (Actually it is very tuff nowadays to see how good acol is doing, since the top players of so called "Acol Land" seems to have abandoned it.)
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#23 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2014-October-18, 13:35

If I decided to make a non-game-forcing two-over-one response, I'd definitely choose 2 rather than 2. The upside of finding a heart fit is much greater than the upside of finding a club fit. I don't think that's specifically an Acol thing: the same argument applies in Standard American too, or any system where you can stop in 2 or 2NT after responding 2.

And I do think one should respond at the two-level on this hand-type, partly because 1-1NT will often lead to the wrong partscore, as well as missing some games. In fact, I'd do it on a worse hand than this. I've just found a deal where I responded 2 on 8 KQ1093 5 K109643. One deal doesn't tell us very much, but FWIW partner had AQ1095 J84 KJ3 QJ, so we bid 1-2;3-4 whilst the opponents bid 1-1NT;pass.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#24 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-October-18, 18:21

View Postgnasher, on 2014-October-18, 13:35, said:

...... One deal doesn't tell us very much, .......


Indeed.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#25 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-October-18, 20:08

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-October-18, 03:47, said:

OK, so when you're proved to be utterly wrong by the OP (who is always entitled to comment), you just resort to abuse.

this is an absolutely standard fantunes 2


Is English your third language perchance? I find it amusing that ordinary players, insert "non expert" if it makes you feel better, use methods which require a high degree of judgement and expert card play and defence.
It is particularly amusing when these methods are played by one world class pair only and a small handful of experts. Adopting such a high risk system will not make you a better player or improve your results. The posted hand is a case in point.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#26 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-October-19, 02:07

Actually, I'm not sure Fantunes 2M openings are theoretically sound. Not on worthless 10-13 counts at least :)
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#27 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-October-19, 02:49

View Postthe hog, on 2014-October-18, 20:08, said:

Is English your third language perchance? I find it amusing that ordinary players, insert "non expert" if it makes you feel better, use methods which require a high degree of judgement and expert card play and defence.
It is particularly amusing when these methods are played by one world class pair only and a small handful of experts. Adopting such a high risk system will not make you a better player or improve your results. The posted hand is a case in point.


Expert declarer play doesn't help if the only difference it makes is whether you go 4 off or 3 off. They will also get better defence.

Where is this "high degree of judgment" ? The OP demonstrated the pair themselves would have opened this hand 2, the only thing missing in his post was the vulnerabilities they opened those hands on. IIRC (I've read the Jacobs book but never played the system) the only alternatives are to open 1 showing 14+ with this shape (you only open 1 with less with both majors) or pass which can lead to equally silly results.

We have a non expert pair in our area playing it, and their results have been OK without many stupidities.
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#28 User is offline   mgoetze 

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Posted 2014-October-19, 03:36

I would surely open the North hand 1, and then my partner, playing 2/1 GF with invitational jump shifts, would be faced with an interesting decision. I've thought about it some and have concluded that it would be reasonable for South to bid 3, planning to convert 3NT to 4, but then again I am not a great judge of what is reasonable, so I would love to hear comments from others as to how to bid this hand with my methods.
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#29 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2014-October-19, 11:56

The North hand would probably be opened 1 , so we'd be playing 3 .

1 - 1 NT (forcing)
2 - 3
P
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#30 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2014-October-19, 14:52

View Postthe hog, on 2014-October-18, 20:08, said:

Is English your third language perchance? I find it amusing that ordinary players, insert "non expert" if it makes you feel better, use methods which require a high degree of judgement and expert card play and defence.
It is particularly amusing when these methods are played by one world class pair only and a small handful of experts. Adopting such a high risk system will not make you a better player or improve your results. The posted hand is a case in point.


I do appreciate your concern for my bridge prowess, especially given your wealth of knowledge on the system you're criticising.
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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#31 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-October-19, 18:35

View PostJinksy, on 2014-October-19, 14:52, said:

I do appreciate your concern for my bridge prowess, especially given your wealth of knowledge on the system you're criticising.


NP at all. Anytime.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#32 User is offline   Cthulhu D 

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Posted 2014-October-26, 19:36

View Postmgoetze, on 2014-October-19, 03:36, said:

I would surely open the North hand 1, and then my partner, playing 2/1 GF with invitational jump shifts, would be faced with an interesting decision. I've thought about it some and have concluded that it would be reasonable for South to bid 3, planning to convert 3NT to 4, but then again I am not a great judge of what is reasonable, so I would love to hear comments from others as to how to bid this hand with my methods.


Having the same problem, while 3C had occured to me I thought it was pretty mis-representative. I'm not sure though? Tough hand for the methods. If you start with a semi forcing 1NT, 1NT rates to be ridiculous, and I'm not sure anything more sensible happens after 1S-1NT-2D-2H?3C?

Edit: I have three regular partnerships playing similar methods, the first one bid 1S-1NT-2D-2H (surprisingly he had no doubt about this bid) - All pass. 2nd one thought for a lot longer as he hates it when I distort 6m5M hands eventually made the same response bidding 2H over 2D.

Part of the reason I don't like it I guess is that we play a 14-16 NT, so a bunch of the balanced hands, so partner is going to be bidding 3NT with a lot of 12 and 13 counts, and I'm not sure the 21HCP game is there. Compiling dealer to test.

Edit: So, as seen by the general discussion forum it's not that easy to do stats analysis in Deal 3.19 (or atleast, I am bad. Your pick).

But over a sample of 50 deals, where south has the hand presented and north has a 12-16 HCP hand with 5+ spades, you make game in hearts or clubs 28 times of 50 (1 more if you could somehow get north to declare).

My analysis isn't very sophisticated, I need to remove 11-12 HCP hands with 2 clubs, which I think are just going to sit 3C even though some will make 4H because they don't know about the heart situation.

Edit 2:

Sample of 200 deals, game makes 101 times out of 200, rising to 115 times if you assume east doesn't have a 6 bagger for his pass. Not sure if you're going to bid them all though, if partner bids 3C, does this scream J9873.Q87.AJ.A97 club slam to you? Maybe you'll bid 5. If partner can know to pass stuff like this AKT964.K6.Q3.976 you're looking good though.
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#33 User is offline   Cthulhu D 

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Posted 2014-October-27, 05:37

Edit: Fixing this post, I forgot to take the 14-16 NTs out of north openers.

OK take two. Removing obvious overcalls from east's hand, and 14-16 NTs from norths hand (5332 exactly), and 11-12 HCP hands with 2 clubs (I suspect a huge % of these will be and should be passed), Game makes 208 times out of 400, where 8 of those being 4S making when hearts and diamonds go down.

It's gotta be worth a shot on those odds.
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