[Lovera]

 nige1, on 2014-October-08, 18:04, said:

JohnU echos John Matheson: First count your tricks. The dummy reversal gives you
♠A, ♥A, 2 ♠ ruffs, 4 top ♦s, and 3 top ♣s = 11 tricks, so you need to find 2 more.
If ♣s are 3-2, then the long ♣s suffice.
Otherwise..
Lovera can't' execute a ♣/♠ squeeze because all North's ♠s have been ruffed. Hence, as JohnU points out, if you have to finesse ♥ before finding out if ♣s break, then the ♥ finesse is likely to be a so-called "practice" finesse -- useful for rehearsing your finessing technique but unlikely to help make the contract. The ♥ finesse helps only if you can develop a ♣ / ♥ squeeze i.e. East fails to cover or he has 6 ♥s.

What might slightly increase your chances is (after ♠A, ♦Q, finding that west has 4 ♦s, ♠ ruff), at trick 4, try to cash ♣AK (see earlier reply).

As i have said in my replay post for Johnu i differently ruff spade once to retain J to execute squeeze and to get point of action i need to play another trick (finesse ) on my (wrong) hypothesis about heart King position. Fourthemore i had thinked triple squeeze (that doesn't need dummy reversal as i have already explained) to act against East. Initially we think clubs are good and way to 13 tricks but when we know 4-0 try to compensate moving our aptention to East (too much perhaps). As i have said in other post when opp are silent (lacking information) points remaining are divided 50 - 50 or 60 - 40 (%) or it meaning 4 in W and 5 in E or 3 - 6 and we know (by opening lead) already 5 points in East .. than we should consider a plain to avoid impassing (i simply consider my plain to have and cover many possibilities). Bye.

[nige1]

rubbish deleted

[nige1]

 PhantomSac, on 2014-October-08, 21:17, said:

It's as if no one considered the bidding

OK, I'll bite How would phantomsac improve my suggested line, in the light of the bidding. I'd be grateful for any tips. If you can cater for unlikely possibilities without jeopardising your main chances, is there harm in doing so?

[Aardv]

How much do you know about GIB's overcalling habits? I know nothing about it, but the card says it plays aggressive weak jump overcalls without regard to vulnerability, and it plays Michaels too.

It can't have 5 clubs or there would have been a lightner double.

Apparently it was dealt the king and queen of spades. So what hands could it have that it wouldn't have overcalled on? Maybe 5404/4504, maybe 5503, either way probably without the king of hearts. (Is there an option to ask it what it would do with a given hand?)

So SA, DA, S ruff, DK, S ruff, CA, DQ, D10. Club. If CJ or C10 dropped under the ace, finesse. If not, shrug and play clubs from the top, because GIB knows enough to split from J10xx.

[nige1]

 Aardv, on 2014-October-09, 10:01, said:

... the card says it plays aggressive weak jump overcalls without regard to vulnerability, and it plays Michaels too. Apparently it was dealt the king and queen of spades. So what hands could it have that it wouldn't have overcalled on? Maybe 5404/4504, maybe 5503, either way probably without the king of hearts. (Is there an option to ask it what it would do with a given hand?)

We are told that West has 4 ♦s but the straight-forward dummy reversal works, so East has at most 3 cards in the minors. Perhaps East secretly joined a silent GIB order

[PhantomSac]

 nige1, on 2014-October-09, 09:46, said:

OK, I'll bite How would phantomsac improve my suggested line, in the light of the bidding. I'd be grateful for any tips. If you can cater for unlikely possibilities without jeopardising your main chances, is there harm in doing so?

Where did I say your line is wrong? You can come up with the right line without considering the bidding (it happens all the time!). I did not see anywhere in your analysis that you mention the bidding makes east very unlikely to have the HK. I did see spots where you failed to realize that the bidding makes east unlikely to have 11+ cards in the majors. For instance you say that if you cash the CA and the J or T drops, against a good defender it is probably right to not finesse the club, since they might play the T or J from JTx(x!).

That is very good except if LHO has JTx of clubs, RHO has the KQ of spades and 11 major suit cards and passed a diamond. Perhaps they might but I find it unlikely. I think it is absolutely right to hook the club based on the bidding, even though that is the wrong play in the suit in a vacuum. You yourself in your last post said maybe gib joined a silent gib order for passing with 10 cards in the majors and the KQ of spades. If that is true, then based on that the heart hook is really 0 % so there's nothing to even discuss, hope the clubs work out.

My point is not that anyone came up with the right or wrong line, my point is that it is a major leak to not even consider the bidding in ones analysis. For instance some people claim that because of empty spaces, the clubs breaking vs the heart hook are very close lines. A lot of math to back that up. That is all well and good except that there was an auction. FWIW I think the auction makes 4-1 clubs more likely but it also makes the heart hook way less likely. I mean some people have it as 60 %! lol. Before deciding that a problem is a math problem and attempting to do math I generally try to first take inferences from the bidding and play. In this case there are many inferences to be had from the bidding and that affects this math greatly, but I did not see anyone mention it so I thought I'd point that out.

I am not saying any line is right or wrong I'm saying in the entire thread the biggest clue of the hand was not discussed, so regardless of what decision people make they are doing it with incomplete and incorrect though processes.

[nige1]

 PhantomSac, on 2014-October-09, 16:40, said:

Where did I say your line is wrong? You can come up with the right line without considering the bidding (it happens all the time!). I did not see anywhere in your analysis that you mention the bidding makes east very unlikely to have the HK. I did see spots where you failed to realize that the bidding makes east unlikely to have 11+ cards in the majors. For instance you say that if you cash the CA and the J or T drops, against a good defender it is probably right to not finesse the club, since they might play the T or J from JTx(x!).
That is very good except if LHO has JTx of clubs, RHO has the KQ of spades and 11 major suit cards and passed a diamond. Perhaps they might but I find it unlikely. I think it is absolutely right to hook the club based on the bidding, even though that is the wrong play in the suit in a vacuum. You yourself in your last post said maybe gib joined a silent gib order for passing with 10 cards in the majors and the KQ of spades. If that is true, then based on that the heart hook is really 0 % so there's nothing to even discuss, hope the clubs work out.
My point is not that anyone came up with the right or wrong line, my point is that it is a major leak to not even consider the bidding in ones analysis. For instance some people claim that because of empty spaces, the clubs breaking vs the heart hook are very close lines. A lot of math to back that up. That is all well and good except that there was an auction. FWIW I think the auction makes 4-1 clubs more likely but it also makes the heart hook way less likely. I mean some people have it as 60 %! lol. Before deciding that a problem is a math problem and attempting to do math I generally try to first take inferences from the bidding and play. In this case there are many inferences to be had from the bidding and that affects this math greatly, but I did not see anyone mention it so I thought I'd point that out.
I am not saying any line is right or wrong I'm saying in the entire thread the biggest clue of the hand was not discussed, so regardless of what decision people make they are doing it with incomplete and incorrect though processes.

Food for thought, Thank you, phantomsac.

[Lovera]

 Aardv, on 2014-October-09, 10:01, said:

How much do you know about GIB's overcalling habits? I know nothing about it, but the card says it plays aggressive weak jump overcalls without regard to vulnerability, and it plays Michaels too.

It can't have 5 clubs or there would have been a lightner double.

Apparently it was dealt the king and queen of spades. So what hands could it have that it wouldn't have overcalled on? Maybe 5404/4504, maybe 5503, either way probably without the king of hearts. (Is there an option to ask it what it would do with a given hand?)

So SA, DA, S ruff, DK, S ruff, CA, DQ, D10. Club. If CJ or C10 dropped under the ace, finesse. If not, shrug and play clubs from the top, because GIB knows enough to split from J10xx.

Either my post in "Michaels" (from N. Ghelli) or other posts in that topic (see Lovera/"Find my content") allow "pass" of East with 4-4-0-5 also considering that in natural systems clubs bidding on 2 level (preventive) is not considered (=unbidding) and,consequently, hypothesis on distribution. Probably East had 4 club (10xxx?) but this one serve to evidence risk of a ruff in these circonstance (high unbalanced shape).