georgi, on 2014-August-27, 15:03, said:
With Q8753 and NT contract, supposedly not some clues, like 1N P P P, GIB would lead 5.
No, you misunderstood my question.
Out of a population of Q8753, West might hold the following possibilities that include the 7 (led at trick 1):
7
Q7, 87, 75, 73
Q87, Q75, Q53, 875, 873, 753
Q875, Q873, Q753, 8753
Q8753
It is suggested by BBradley62 that of all these possibilities, GIB would lead the 7 from, and only from,
7, 75, 73, Q87 (singleton 7 added by me). Do you agree with this?
Proceeding on the assumption that you do, then when West leads the 7, South may hold the complementary cards:
Q853, Q83, Q85 or 53
Earlier I the thread I suggested that South was known to hold the 8 once the 7 had been led but this was in error as it did not allow for West holding Q87, I don't think that this materially affects my point.
You have suggested that my play of the 8 makes me heavy favourite (from East's viewpoint) to have started with Q853. I don't follow this.
It was my understanding that
a) GIB claims to play insignificant cards at random, and
b) GIB assumes that its opponents (and partners), including humans, adopt the same strategy.
If 8, 5 and 3 are essentially equal insignificant cards in terms of their trick taking potential, it seems to me that Q853 is a statistically minority holding from which to play the 8, in contrast to your suggested "very likely".
Incidentally I am not convinced that GIB plays small cards at random. I have no empirical data but my gut feel is that it is weighted to concealing the smallest card in favour of playing a higher one. Until rumbled to it, this is likely to be a winning strategy, as most inexperienced players will lose track of the smaller card.
Not that any of this is necessarily relevant to why the defence opted to cash 7 tricks off the top against me alone.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.
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Masterminding (pron. m
s
t
r-m
nd
ing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.
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