[diana_eva]

Partner leads the ♥2, 3/5th. You win with the Ace, declarer following with the 9. How do you continue?

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[inquiry]

Let me take a stab. I will hide my answer to reduce the public laughing at my choices.

Spoiler

They play 13-15 HCP 1NT, so lets start by assuming East has a minimum of 13. Why minimum? It gives us the best chance to set the contract. If he has 13, with the 12 in dummy and our 9 that marks partner with 6 HCP. I assume your agreement is low from value, so partner will have the ♥Q. We hope declarer has the ♦K because if partner has it those 3 HCP are wasted. So partner will have something in a black suit (a king or ace in clubs or the spade Ace). The Ace would give him (or her) six points (heart queen and the black suit Ace) the king of clubs would mean declarer likely has 14 hcp or partner needs the spade Jack (we will want partner to have the spade jack).

Partner also will not have at least three spades because East didn't raise spades, and at least two clubs, because a singleton club might have been a more attractive lead than from what looks like ♥Qxxxx. So partner rates to be ♠3+ ♥5 ♦? ♣2+. That leaves him with 3 unknown card which can include a 4th spade, one to three diamonds, and one to three more clubs.

The most obvious way to a set is for partner to have the ♠A and we collect two quick spades. If partner has the ♣A (or king). If I can't think of anything better I will switch to a small spade.

Next lets count declarer's tricks. He has Six diamonds in dummy, no matter where the ♦K is hiding (it better be in East). He will never score a heart trick, even if partner doesn't have the ♥Q (which would be great for us as it means partner has the spade queen hopefully if declarer only has 13 hcp, of course, declarer could have 15 when he has the ♠Q). If declarer has ♠AQJ, he will score four spade tricks by finessing us twice. So that is 6+4 = 10 tricks. and his combined K-Q of clubs will force an 11th. What if partner has the ♣K and the ♠J? Declarer will still score 2♣ tricks, but he can lose 1♠, one heart, and one club.

So the two hands we have to play declarer for are
hand 1 ♠AQx ♥xx ♦Kx(x) ♣Axxx(x) and
hand 2 ♠QJ(x) ♥xx ♦Kx(x) ♣AKxx(x) and

With hand one, you will collect one slow spade and the ♣King on pretty much any return, as long as partner is not endplayed into leading away from the ♣K. I don't see a reasonable way an endplay can come to be. Although I might come under pressure if dummy cashes six rounds of diamonds.

With hand two, if declarer has five clubs to the AKT9 he might be able to pick clubs up with a lucky guess for three spade pitches from dummy or if you lead a club and the ten holds.

As long as I feel comfortable that partner must have at least two clubs, I think I would probably exit a trump and let declarer try to figure the hand out on his own. That should set both hand one and two. However, if I don't feel comfortable that partner can not have a singleton club (which would mean declarer could have six clubs), then I would instead lead a low spade.

Not much of an answer. Lead my trump or lead a low spade asking for a spade return. I guess I was thinking I would lead a trump 90% of the time and the low spade 10% of the time. I would not lead a heart just in case declarer had heart QTx and partner lead from 3 small, which would allow declarer to pitch both clubs off dummy. I would not lead a club in case declarer has AKT9x and it solves a club guess for him.

But as I explained all of this I have now gotten worried that a trump lead risk declarer guessing clubs right if he holds AKTxx and no ♠A. He will have to decide rather to play for 3-3 clubs or play me for Jxxx. It is a guess for him, but he could guess it right. He would have seen that I had only 1♦ and presumably five hearts, so that might make him lean towards the second round club finesse. At the table, I think I would have lead a trump because when I started typing this, that is what I was going to switch too, but after writing all this down and looking at it, a small spade looks better and better, so that maybe the "simplest" solution to set the contract (low spade back at trick two when partner holds the Ace) also works nicely if partner has spade jack third and the club king.

[Mbodell]

I'll return a low spade. Obviously if partner has the A we should get 2 at once. If declarer has Axx of spades it may be we have to start spades before we or partner get in with a slow club? Since we know E has 2 or 3 spades from the auction, it is slightly more likely that partner has things in spades than clubs and seems less likely that something bad will happen.