Posted 2014-April-07, 09:55
Assuming 4th best (you left that part out) along with an honor it appears
the heart suit is splitting 44 so we do not have any extra probabilities
that the club suit will split poorly. I will win the heart Q (if they let me)
and lead the club J (who knows maybe a 25% chance will appear) trying to lose
the lead to rho and further protect the heart K. Playing for split club honors
this way may net us 4c 1h 2s 1d and another heart if the opps continue the attack
from rho. There is the small chance 25% of 5 clubs also to go with 1d 1h 2s
which would seem to be the safest shot overall.