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Introducing a new convention: Lee Two Diamonds

Poll: Introducing a new convention: Lee Two Diamonds (24 member(s) have cast votes)

Finesse or play to drop the king?

  1. Finesse (24 votes [100.00%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 100.00%

  2. Drop (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#1 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-January-24, 11:57

This hand comes from a club game. 2/21 tables bid slam in (6 can also make).

Notes on the bidding:
1. The 2 is a new convention: Lee 2, promising one of the following hand patterns -
a) A natural 6 or 7-card suit, 6-11 HCP
b) 6-4 in the majors, 10-15 HCP
c) A big 4-4-4-1 hand, 16+ HCP
d) A big 5-5 holding in the minors, 14+ HCP
2. When North overcalled 3 East knew that West was either a) a natural pre-empt, or b) 6-4 in the majors. On both accounts East had good support for whichever hand pattern West had opened. So the X was obviously for takeout into whatever West held.
3. 4 was showing the 6-card suit
4. 5 showed a void in the suit inviting the slam if West's holding was doubleton and singleton in the minor suits. Reverse the minor suit holding and West would signoff in 5.

Now that you have bid the slam, you have to make it. Do you finesse for the K or do you play to drop it?
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#2 User is offline   BillHiggin 

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Posted 2014-January-24, 14:01

OMG! Do you think it is even close? It is not. The finesse is nearly twice as likely to work as the drop.
You might consider playing for the drop if you feel the entire field will be in slam AND you need a swing to move into the lead (i.e. swing by going against the odds).
You must know the rules well - so that you may break them wisely!
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#3 User is offline   Lord Molyb 

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Posted 2014-January-24, 14:13

A more interesting problem is how do you find the queen of spades?
I play card games! What about the rest of you guys?
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#4 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2014-January-24, 16:21

It's tough to analyze without knowing what the opening lead was (and if it was a diamond, what was led at trick 2). But finesse is the better play regardless.

The finesse is 50-50 and the drop is 26%, even with the info given by the auction and whatever info is given by the opening lead.

Believe it or not, you're not certainly dead if it fails, unless they've already cashed a diamond honor. (North, holder of the hypothetical K, may not hold the diamond ace and may fail to lead a diamond. Not likely, but possible. He'd certainly be wary of leading away from a blank K if he wasn't 100% certain West holds a singleton.)

Also, the point about matchpoints--you're either getting a shared top or a poor score (maybe some tables will sell out to 4, maybe you'll have company with 5 -1 or 5x -1), so you usually should take the best line for the contract.

Agreed about the Q being more interesting.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#5 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2014-January-24, 17:09

to give you an idea of the importance of including the opening lead---If N leads the dia K or A

I would play for the heart finesse. I N fails to lead a dia I would credit s with one of those honors

and play for the drop of the heart K due to the bidding.

It would take a pretty savvy and daredevil N to fail to lead a dia with AK and stiff heart K since they

would have no idea if the A is with E or W. and failure to lead a dia may result in losing it (not a big

deal at imps but potentially huge at MP).



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#6 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2014-January-24, 17:30

View Postgszes, on 2014-January-24, 17:09, said:


<interesting post>



I find it difficult to read your posts; is there a particular reason you double-space them?
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#7 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-January-24, 20:45

The lead was the A.
One declarer in slam made 12 tricks, the other one went down 1.
Five other declarer's in 4 made 12 tricks.
Two declarer's in 5X went down 3 for minus 500.
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#8 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-January-24, 20:46

< Double post >
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#9 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2014-January-25, 11:53

View Post32519, on 2014-January-24, 20:45, said:

The lead was the A.
One declarer in slam made 12 tricks, the other one went down 1.
Five other declarer's in 4 made 12 tricks.
Two declarer's in 5X went down 3 for minus 500.

Wow, 5 tricks lost in 5. So I take it spades are 2-2 and diamonds 4-4? Because declarer would have to lose 2 spades, 2 diamonds and a heart to go down 3.

If my inferences are correct, that means:
(1) In 5, the declarer failed to take a safety play in diamonds to avoid the loss of 2 tricks.
(2) North is probably 2-1-4-6, and I'm willing to bet that that singleton is the K.

No matter, dropping the singleton K is still quite against the odds. If that's how the making slam was brought home, that declarer either misplayed the hand and got lucky, or was "swinging." (I suppose, if the hand was played in person, the "table action" might have suggested the blank K.)

Show us the full hands when you're ready :)
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#10 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-January-25, 13:28

View PostHighLow21, on 2014-January-25, 11:53, said:

Wow, 5 tricks lost in 5. So I take it spades are 2-2 and diamonds 4-4? Because declarer would have to lose 2 spades, 2 diamonds and a heart to go down 3.

If my inferences are correct, that means:
(1) In 5, the declarer failed to take a safety play in diamonds to avoid the loss of 2 tricks.
(2) North is probably 2-1-4-6, and I'm willing to bet that that singleton is the K.

No matter, dropping the singleton K is still quite against the odds. If that's how the making slam was brought home, that declarer either misplayed the hand and got lucky, or was "swinging." (I suppose, if the hand was played in person, the "table action" might have suggested the blank K.)

Show us the full hands when you're ready :)

Well done, you got this spot on!
This was the full hand:

North led the A and continued with the K, trumped by declarer. Declarer next played a , trumped in dummy. This was followed with the Q. When the K never appeared, declarer went up with the A, crashing the K singleton, making 12 when the suit split 2-2.
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#11 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2014-January-25, 20:37

View Post32519, on 2014-January-25, 13:28, said:

Well done, you got this spot on!
This was the full hand:

North led the A and continued with the K, trumped by declarer. Declarer next played a , trumped in dummy. This was followed with the Q. When the K never appeared, declarer went up with the A, crashing the K singleton, making 12 when the suit split 2-2.


Obviously, playing for the singleton K must be a 100% play. :rolleyes:
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#12 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2014-January-25, 20:37

Deleted - Duplicate post
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#13 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2014-January-25, 20:39

View Post32519, on 2014-January-25, 13:28, said:

Well done, you got this spot on!
This was the full hand:
<see above>

<Edited a few times, after a lot of thought>
So it sounds like either declarer played hearts wrong or acted on a funny feeling and was right about the K. Maybe intuition based on the first 2 tricks got the better of declarer. (The diamond lead and continuation, assuming partner has signaled in diamonds on Trick 1, subtly suggests the hopes of another trick somewhere... and what could that be but the K?)

Note my point about diamonds if N/S play in 5. Declarer can draw trumps and eliminate the majors, later running the 9 to ensure the loss of only one trick. At matchpoints this is massive, because they will beat any pair that sells out to the heart game.

Only if a spade to the ace/jack is led at opening and the singleton diamond returned will this elimination/throw-in fail.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#14 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2014-January-25, 21:57

325,

It sounds as if someone bid this disgusting slam against you and made it. That's life sometimes.
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#15 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-January-26, 00:22

View PostVampyr, on 2014-January-25, 21:57, said:

325,

It sounds as if someone bid this disgusting slam against you and made it. That's life sometimes.

:huh: Where do you play bridge? Since when is a slam bid and made, disgusting? Slams bid and made on distributional fits low in HCP are all part of the game. B-)
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#16 User is offline   madongjun 

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Posted 2014-January-26, 03:22

finesse on K and play to drop 0n Q.
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#17 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-January-28, 09:22

View PostVampyr, on 2014-January-25, 21:57, said:

It sounds as if someone bid this disgusting slam against you and made it. That's life sometimes.

Did you read the note about the opening bid? It is clear that 32519 was part of the pair bidding slam and probably West. Are you not convinced that this is the only good way to play a 2 opening yet?
(-: Zel :-)
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#18 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2014-January-28, 09:32

View PostZelandakh, on 2014-January-28, 09:22, said:

Did you read the note about the opening bid? It is clear that 32519 was part of the pair bidding slam and probably West. Are you not convinced that this is the only good way to play a 2 opening yet?


Well... I did get to this awful slam, didn't I?
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#19 User is offline   32519 

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Posted 2014-January-29, 11:23

Here is another hand from a club game incorporating my version of the Multi. The final contract was all over the place -
When N/S declared:
2/18 in 2NT
2/18 in 3
4/18 in 3NT
1/18 in 4NT
1/18 in 5
2/18 in 5X
1/18 in 6
When E/W declared:
2/18 in 3X
3/18 in 4X
All E/W made 9 tricks. According to the hand records, E/W can make 8 tricks in , N/S can make 11 tricks in .

Notes on the bidding:
1. West's 2 was Multi, but promising one of the following hand patterns -
(a) 6 or 7-card suit, 6-11 HCP
(b) 6-4 in the majors, 10-15 HCP
© Big 4-4-4-1 hand, 16+ HCP
(d) Big 2-suiter in the minors, 14+ HCP
2. When North overcalled 2NT, East figured that West either held a) a natural suit, or b) 6-4 in the majors. 3 was pre-emptive for 3 suits knowing of a) a 10-card fit in , or b) a 9-card fit in either or .
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#20 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-January-29, 11:28

You need to tell us what the 2NT bid meant. Am also interested what West was expected to do with 16 and 4414, which is certainly a possibility. I am not quite sure what you are wanting to demonstrate this hand other than that one sometimes gets good scores when playing against beginners.
(-: Zel :-)
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