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The Road to the 2014 World Cup

#41 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2014-June-08, 04:55

View Postmike777, on 2014-June-07, 22:49, said:

I notice that unfortunately cheating is becoming more common in this sport and at the very least suggestions of payoffs for the honor of holding world cups in the future, fixed games, etc.

What makes you think cheating is new? Look up Francis Lee's games from the 1971-72 season for one of the best known cases from the past.


View Postmike777, on 2014-June-07, 22:49, said:

At the very least in all aspects this sport seems to be resistant to change and innovation for many reasons.( instant replay of refs calls: modern attacks and defense based on quants)

Instant replay in football is not so easy as most American sports because play is continuous and TV replays are often not conclusive for many calls. Where technology is coming in is for goal line decisions. I happen to agree with you that there could be more use made of technology but I also understand the resistance to this from some quarters. An example of resistance came from Germany this year, where the league clubs voted against using the goal line technology because of the costs involved.

Incidentally, I understand from previous comments that you are a baseball fan. When I was watching baseball many years ago the TV showed instant replays of the pitches using K-Zone. It struck me as an obvious use of technology in order to avoid the common "expanding the strike zone" trick used by "name" pitchers and just for a generally more accurately called game. In addition, a related sport, cricket, has embraced technology and upon review the umpires also have access to things such as Hot Spot, which can help determine whether the ball touched the bat. Has baseball implemented this technology yet for MLB games?


View Postmike777, on 2014-June-07, 23:39, said:

Can the best team, the team with the most talent overcome the great heat and passion of Brazil?

Arguably the best team 1 to 11 is Belgium but they are young and most feel the tournament is coming too soon for them. The big four for the WC are Argentina, Brazil, Germany and Spain. However all of these teams have some issues and the competition is comparativley open this year. Overcoming the heat is going to be key - you just cannot play a game with fast attacks and a pressing defence for 90 minutes over there. On the other hand players and coaches understand this better than for previous World Cups in South America and the historical record that no Northern hemisphere team has ever won down there is probably less important than in any tournament to date.

So yes, Germany (or Spain) could overcome the heat down there. Whether they will or not is another matter. In reality there are probably about 7 or 8 teams that could realistically win. I would not include the USA within this group, indeed they will do well to qualify for the knockout stages, especially in Ronaldo can play.
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#42 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2014-June-08, 05:26

I remember Brazil-Norway when everyone assumed the Norwegian dude dived but only a few days later did they find an angle that showed quite conclusively that it wasn't a dive. Of course replays now are quite a bit better than then...

https://www.youtube....h?v=Gl7juV0rWA8
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#43 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2014-June-08, 12:23

The expectations of media and public opinion are in Germany enormous this time, simply >>> "win the title"

I have serious doubts, this thinking can be realistic. Well, injuried players are in all teams, the pre-WC-time counts not much too, but to fly to Brazil with only one 36y old classic forward (Klose) who played less than a half of last season and win the title? OK football changed in last couple of years, flexible midfield is deciding. But I cant imagine a team would be able to win the WC without a very strong man on number "9" position...we will see...



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#44 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-June-08, 13:37

View Postmike777, on 2014-June-05, 23:05, said:

yapping seems to be most common.

AT this point perhaps that is all the world cup is....yapping.


60 minutes of boring and yapping or can you show me something else?

can you show me world cup excitement?
can you show me world cup passion? true when you as a poster you show passion?

In baseball in America I think of passion, true passion

When I think of soccer I think of passion, in 2014 what passion teams do you see?



Mike are you ***** kidding me? Passion? Baseball?

I think it is about time to show Americans what a football passions looks like!

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=f1-2ltPkO-A




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#45 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2014-June-08, 13:57

View Postmike777, on 2014-June-05, 21:31, said:

Will the Usa finish in the top ten?

Sorry Mike, but this question is equivalent to: "Will the Yankees finish in the top three of the World Series?"

There are 8 groups (A-H) of 4 teams each. Within each group every team plays the other three teams once. The best two of each group continue to the knockout phase which therefore starts as a group of 16. Perhaps you understand now why the question whether the USA will finish in the top 10 is a little odd.

Your other questions and remarks are odd too, but on a different level. Something like: "Will Max Scherzer get the same OPS this season as he got last season (1.000!)?" and "Obviously, these MLB coaches don't understand simple math. They put their power hitters fourth in the line up. If they would be smart enough to put them first in the line-up, these power hitters will get more at bats! And the team will score more home runs!". (Don't worry. No need to answer these.)

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#46 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 03:43

View Postmike777, on 2014-June-07, 22:49, said:


I notice that unfortunately cheating is becoming more common in this sport and at the very least suggestions of payoffs for the honor of holding world cups in the future, fixed games, etc.

As an outsider and I am, the most popular sport in the world seems to be archaic at the very top. For example I point to the leader of the sport for roughly 18 years and its (questionable) non tax status in Switzerland.

You who follow the sport more closely may agree or disagree.

At the very least in all aspects this sport seems to be resistant to change and innovation for many reasons.( instant replay of refs calls: modern attacks and defense based on quants) Again I say this as an outsider so look forward to your comments from those of you who follow the sport in more passion. From what little I understand it seems that Europe is more open, much more open to innovation and change than the rest of the soccer world. ( agree or disagree?)


I do find the passion, great passion in this sport to be of the finest from its many fans.


FIFA is like the IOC was before Salt Lake City, with many of the same issues. Blatter needs to go and they have to take their heads out of their backsides and actually investigate what's gone on, rather than appoint a lawyer to do it and then have him not look at most of the evidence. Soccer suffers from the fact that for a long time it was a game for professionals run by amateurs. An example was the cause of Roy Keane's meltdown where he found it odd to say the least that the Irish team were travelling economy while the officials were in business/first.

It's very common for sporting organizations to want to base themselves in Switzerland not just for the tax status but because they can be sure of no political governmental interference.

The resistance to technology is interesting, part of it is to attempt to make it the same game in the English premier league as it is in the Botswana 2nd division. I disagree with this approach and it's now beginning to cave in, goal line technology is here and working pretty well. What they need to do next is allow recourse to technology for other clear cases. Was a foul inside/outside the penalty area ? for example. Simulation can be dealt with after the event. FIFA need to drop their resistance to re-refereeing the game afterwards so that the authorities can change punishments when the ref has seen the incident.

As to passion, baseball has nothing on soccer. Many fans of British teams will attend every road game, I notice in the NFL and I guess baseball is similar, there are very few fans of the visiting team in the stadium, this is a large part of why the atmosphere is different.
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#47 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 09:12

View Postgwnn, on 2014-June-08, 05:26, said:

I remember Brazil-Norway when everyone assumed the Norwegian dude dived but only a few days later did they find an angle that showed quite conclusively that it wasn't a dive. Of course replays now are quite a bit better than then...

https://www.youtube....h?v=Gl7juV0rWA8


Yeah like this spannish "newspaper" who digitally removed a player from a picture to make attacker offside lol (obviously in favour of your team).
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#48 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 09:22

This weekend I had a reunion with several friends from college. At one point we got to discussing this world cup. After some debate, two others made a wager against me. I have Brazil, Spain, and Germany, and they have the rest of the field. Whoever has the champion, wins the bet. This seemed favorable for me, but they were quite happy with the terms, so maybe my understanding is not so good as I thought.

Which side of this bet would you take?
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#49 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 09:44

Id definitely take your side.
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#50 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 09:46

Fluffy, are you saying that the Swedish tv photoshopped the video?
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#51 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 10:01

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-June-09, 03:43, said:

As to passion, baseball has nothing on soccer. Many fans of British teams will attend every road game, I notice in the NFL and I guess baseball is similar, there are very few fans of the visiting team in the stadium, this is a large part of why the atmosphere is different.

While I agree about the passion, at least part of the discrepancy in road attendance is due to distance. All of England is smaller than (say) Illinois by itself. So in baseball, even a routine divisional road game such as (say) Cleveland vs. Kansas City, is much further than any EPL contest, and the distances obviously get larger than that.
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#52 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 10:02

View Postbillw55, on 2014-June-09, 09:22, said:



Which side of this bet would you take?


IMO this bet is for sure not 1:1 . I would say the chances are 65% to 35% in your favour.
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#53 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 10:16

View Postbillw55, on 2014-June-09, 10:01, said:

While I agree about the passion, at least part of the discrepancy in road attendance is due to distance. All of England is smaller than (say) Illinois by itself. So in baseball, even a routine divisional road game such as (say) Cleveland vs. Kansas City, is further than any EPL contest, and the distances get much larger than that.


Yes but they go in coaches rather than flying, and this occurs at all levels, so 360 miles each way, 8 hours or even more on a coach to see a 4th tier game and a couple of hundred will go on a Saturday. In the premiership, thousands will make that sort of journey, even on a midweek evening when they have to travel by car or coach as there are no trains back after the match.
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#54 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 10:22

View Postgwnn, on 2014-June-09, 09:46, said:

Fluffy, are you saying that the Swedish tv photoshopped the video?


Italian TV did a one. They belive Squadra Azzura has won a very important fan!

Posted Image
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#55 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 10:33

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-June-09, 10:16, said:

Yes but they go in coaches rather than flying, and this occurs at all levels, so 360 miles each way, 8 hours or even more on a coach to see a 4th tier game and a couple of hundred will go on a Saturday. In the premiership, thousands will make that sort of journey, even on a midweek evening when they have to travel by car or coach as there are no trains back after the match.

Yeah, I know. Over here, I can barely imagine minor league fans traveling to a road game at all. No doubt, soccer fans are more committed/passionate/obsessed, and it's not close.
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#56 User is offline   MickyB 

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Posted 2014-June-09, 10:47

Based on the Betfair market, Brazil/Germany/Spain to win = 49%
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#57 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2014-June-10, 01:00

View PostMickyB, on 2014-June-09, 10:47, said:

Based on the Betfair market, Brazil/Germany/Spain to win = 49%


oK thanks so my take as an outsider for Germany being the best team the team with the most talent and Brazil winning based on passion and home field advantage was not that far off.
----

I stand by my comments that passion will be most important the next few weeks but in general the sport has become rotten at its basic core in terms of payoffs and fixed games, rotten at the very top which is spreading to its core players and leaders.

I understand that betting, gambling is core to the sport as betting is core in USA football.

I understand that injury is becoming rampant at the top of worldwide football as it is in American football.
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#58 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2014-June-11, 15:16

View PostMickyB, on 2014-June-09, 10:47, said:

Based on the Betfair market, Brazil/Germany/Spain to win = 49%


I am not experienced in these things. but suppose this counting bases on the addition of chances of all 21 remaining teams.

If we skip the additon of teams which WC win is only theoritically possible I think , that would bring more than 49% for Germany, Brazil and Spain.

Is it true, or I am wrong with that logic here?
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#59 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2014-June-11, 16:17

Yes but I would trust the 49%. Such a high profile market is unlikely to be exploitable
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Posted 2014-June-11, 16:25

View Postbillw55, on 2014-June-09, 09:22, said:

This weekend I had a reunion with several friends from college. At one point we got to discussing this world cup. After some debate, two others made a wager against me. I have Brazil, Spain, and Germany, and they have the rest of the field. Whoever has the champion, wins the bet. This seemed favorable for me, but they were quite happy with the terms, so maybe my understanding is not so good as I thought.

Which side of this bet would you take?


I'd take your side (and wish I could get some of that action)

FWIW, I am expecting Brazil to win, however, I am rooting for Spain or Argentina because I think that they're fun to watch
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