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College Football (US) What's with the SEC teams?

#41 User is offline   jjbrr 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 12:13

Also note: Both UGA and BAMA were the only teams in the SEC top 6 to only play 2 games against the rest of the SEC top 6. Mizzou had to play 5 of the top 6 (welcome to the SEC amirite) while the rest of the SEC top 6 played 3-4 games against the others.
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#42 User is offline   jjbrr 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 12:17

Sorry when I said arbitrary tie breaker I'm not saying H2H shouldn't be an obvious tie breaker. I'm just saying Florida's season was much, much better than UGA's and I think most of us can agree with that.
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#43 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 12:17

View Postbd71, on 2012-December-03, 10:13, said:

So where's the evidence the SEC is an outlier?
Here is the list of non-conference games this year for the SEC. You can draw your own conclusions, but this looks weak to me, and I am a huge SEC fan. On the other hand, despite the "easy" ooc schedule, the sec plays a brutal in-confernce schedule.

1. Missouri: Southeastern Louisiana, Arizona State, at UCF, Syracuse2. Vanderbilt: at Northwestern, Presbyterian, UMass, at Wake Forest

3. Arkansas: Jacksonville State, at Louisiana-Monroe, Rutgers, Tulsa

4. Alabama: Michigan (at Dallas), Western Kentucky, FAU, Western Carolina

5. Florida: Bowling Green, Louisiana-Lafayette, Jacksonville State, at Florida State

6. LSU: North Texas, Washington, Idaho, Towson

7. Ole Miss: Central Arkansas, UTEP, Texas, at Tulane

8. South Carolina: ECU, UAB, Wofford, at Clemson

9. Auburn: Clemson (at Atlanta), Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, Alabama A&M

10. Georgia: Buffalo, FAU, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech

11. Tennessee: NC State (at Atlanta), Georgia State, Akron, Troy

12. Kentucky: at Louisville, Kent State, Western Kentucky, Samford

13. Texas A&M: at Louisiana Tech, at SMU, South Carolina State, Sam Houston State

14. Mississippi State: Jackson State, at Troy, South Alabama, Middle Tennessee


I can't speak fot the relative stregnth of schedule for these non-conference opponents versus other conference's ooc games, but I do know that Florida has already played five schools with 10 wins or more this season, and lost one of those games. They have one more 10 win school to play in the bowl game. Someone told me that no school has ever won 4 games against opponents with 10+ wins before (I am not a football historian and didn't try to verify that), and Florida is a double digit favorite to get their 5th such win in Jan. So at least Florida had a tough schedule with games against final BCS rated teams at #7, 8, 9, 10, and 12, and one more against #21 (Louisville). So maybe OCC is not all that important during regular season for the SEC, let's see how they do in their bowl games, shall we?
--Ben--

#44 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 12:22

View Postjjbrr, on 2012-December-03, 12:13, said:

Also note: Both UGA and BAMA were the only teams in the SEC top 6 to only play 2 games against the rest of the SEC top 6. Mizzou had to play 5 of the top 6 (welcome to the SEC amirite) while the rest of the SEC top 6 played 3-4 games against the others.

Part of the reason for this is that both UGA and BAMA were in the SEC top 6, and they can't play against themselves.

Another reason is just luck of the draw, since the schedules are put together years in advance in most cases.
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#45 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 12:56

BCS ranks are heavily influenced by human polls.

Human polls are based on slot voting starting from preseason ranks.

Preseason ranks are based on how good you were last year.

The SEC was good last year.

See how it works? Once the SEC starts losing some bowl games, the cycle can be broken for next year.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#46 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 14:53

View Postbillw55, on 2012-December-03, 12:56, said:

BCS ranks are heavily influenced by human polls.

Human polls are based on slot voting starting from preseason ranks.

Preseason ranks are based on how good you were last year.

The SEC was good last year.

See how it works? Once the SEC starts losing some bowl games, the cycle can be broken for next year.



If your bolded statement is right, and if the gamblers are right (see below), it looks like the SEC will be highly ranked again next year. It seems eight SEC teams are in Bowls this year (two BCS ones), and they are favored in all eight. In two of them they are favored by double digits, in all but two of them, they are favored by at least one touchdown. Only the Gator Bowl with Mississipi State (who struggled at the end of the year) is the point spread really very close. For what it worth, Alabama (#2) is a bigger favorite against Notre Dame (#1) than they were against Georgia (then #3, now #7).

Music City Bowl: NC State vs Vanderbilt (-7.5)
Chick Fil-A Bowl: Clemson vs LSU (-7)
Gator Bowl: Northwestern vs Mississippi State (-2.5)
Outback Bowl: South Carolina (-7) vs. Michigan
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M (-6) vs Oklahoma
Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs Georgia (-12.5)
Sugar Bowl: Florida (-15.5) vs Louisville
BCS Championship Game: Alabama (-9.5) vs Notre Dame





--Ben--

#47 User is offline   Flem72 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 15:27

Take Mississippi State.
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#48 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 15:53

View Postinquiry, on 2012-December-03, 14:53, said:

Chick Fil-A Bowl: Clemson vs LSU (-7)

Note to self: remember to wear orange on 12/31, to blend in...
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#49 User is offline   Thiros 

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Posted 2012-December-03, 16:59

View Postinquiry, on 2012-December-03, 14:53, said:

If your bolded statement is right, and if the gamblers are right (see below), it looks like the SEC will be highly ranked again next year. It seems eight SEC teams are in Bowls this year (two BCS ones), and they are favored in all eight. In two of them they are favored by double digits, in all but two of them, they are favored by at least one touchdown. Only the Gator Bowl with Mississipi State (who struggled at the end of the year) is the point spread really very close. For what it worth, Alabama (#2) is a bigger favorite against Notre Dame (#1) than they were against Georgia (then #3, now #7).


Nine. Ole Miss is also in a bowl game, playing Pittsburgh, and is also favored, although narrowly (as of now).

The interest in bowl game pairings often goes beyond the matchup on the field. For instance, Kansas State had a game scheduled at Oregon in September this year, but backed out because Oregon swapped out a meeting with Kansas State on a neutral field for one with LSU last year. Thus the gaudy appearance of Tennessee Tech on Oregon's schedule, which was the result of a last-minute scramble by Oregon to fill the vacated spot. Now Kansas State is the Big 12 champion and going to the Fiesta Bowl, where they will be playing Oregon after all. So here we have a storyline about the team that, in the end, has to play the game that they tried to back out of.

Meanwhile, back home, Stanford will be playing to avenge the loss to Wisconsin the last time they played in the Rose Bowl, at the turn of the millennium. At that time Wisconsin was the national power and Stanford was the lowly representative of a weak Pac-10; now the roles are reversed.
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#50 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-December-04, 07:20

View Postinquiry, on 2012-December-03, 14:53, said:

If your bolded statement is right, and if the gamblers are right (see below), it looks like the SEC will be highly ranked again next year. It seems eight SEC teams are in Bowls this year (two BCS ones), and they are favored in all eight. In two of them they are favored by double digits, in all but two of them, they are favored by at least one touchdown.

True, but to some extent the betting line reflects public perception as much as it does real sports predicting. The only thing bookies care about is getting equal amounts bet on both sides. If enough bettors would bet Notre Dame -50, that's what the line would be, reality notwithstanding. People think the SEC is superior, therefore the betting lines favor them by more than is really warranted.

Or maybe it is warranted after all, results will tell. But if I was a betting man, I would bet against the SEC team in every game and expect to come out ahead.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#51 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2012-December-04, 07:37

View Postjjbrr, on 2012-December-03, 12:10, said:

It's quite possible the two best teams in the SEC didn't even meet in the SEC Championship game due to a somewhat arbitrary tie breaker.
Arbitrary? Georgia won the game when they played head-to-head. You can't get less arbitrary than that.
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#52 User is offline   Bbradley62 

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Posted 2012-December-04, 08:12

View Postbillw55, on 2012-December-04, 07:20, said:

But if I was a betting man, I would bet against the SEC team in every game and expect to come out ahead.

Presumably, the same logic would have led you to the same expectation last year.

bleacherreport.com said:

Franklin American Mortgage Music City - Mississippi State -7 vs. Wake Forest
AutoZone Liberty—Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt -2
Chick-fil-A—Virginia vs. Auburn (pick ‘em)
Outback—Michigan State vs. Georgia -2
Capital One—Nebraska -1 vs. South Carolina
Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl—Ohio State vs. Florida -1.5
AT&T Cotton—Kansas State vs. Arkansas -8.5
I've omitted the Missouri and Texas A&M games, since they weren't yet SEC members. Also omitted the national championship game, since it was SEC vs SEC.

Mississippi State 23, Wake Forest 17
Cincinnati 31, Vanderbilt 24
Auburn 43, Virginia 24
Michigan State 33, Georgia 30
South Carolina 30, Nebraska 13
Florida 24, Ohio State 17
Arkansas 29, Kansas State 16

Miss St, Vanderbilt, and Georgia bets lose whereas Auburn, South Carolina, Florida and Arkansas cover their spreads. Small sample size, I know, but it appears that you don't get rich betting against SEC, possibly because there are enough "deniers" trying to do so.
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#53 User is offline   pigpenz 

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Posted 2012-December-05, 11:47

it would be nice to see some of the SEC teams have to go up north and play in some snow.
the killer for alot of teams from other areas is having to go down south and getting killed
from the humidity
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#54 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-December-05, 13:32

View PostBbradley62, on 2012-December-04, 08:12, said:

Miss St, Vanderbilt, and Georgia bets lose whereas Auburn, South Carolina, Florida and Arkansas cover their spreads. Small sample size, I know, but it appears that you don't get rich betting against SEC, possibly because there are enough "deniers" trying to do so.

I figured somebody would do that work for me :)

There are good reasons I am not a bettor.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#55 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2012-December-05, 13:35

View Postpigpenz, on 2012-December-05, 11:47, said:

it would be nice to see some of the SEC teams have to go up north and play in some snow.
the killer for alot of teams from other areas is having to go down south and getting killed
from the humidity



My guess is this is more about the fans experience and parties and how the show looks on tv, not who gets killed or injured on the field...no one really cares.

Keep in mind the big drivers here are:
violence
money
gambling
parties
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#56 User is offline   billw55 

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Posted 2012-December-06, 07:36

View Postmike777, on 2012-December-05, 13:35, said:

My guess is this is more about the fans experience and parties and how the show looks on tv, not who gets killed or injured on the field...no one really cares.

Keep in mind the big drivers here are:
violence
money
gambling
parties

... and alcohol. Perhaps not sold in the stadium (I'm not sure about this) but definitely part of the tailgating and parties.

The only way to get postseason games up north is for them to start building enclosable stadiums.
Life is long and beautiful, if bad things happen, good things will follow.
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#57 User is offline   jjbrr 

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Posted 2012-December-06, 22:43

View Postpigpenz, on 2012-December-05, 11:47, said:

it would be nice to see some of the SEC teams have to go up north and play in some snow.
the killer for alot of teams from other areas is having to go down south and getting killed
from the humidity


ok. ill bite.

how much time have you spent in the south in sept, oct, nov?
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#58 User is offline   jjbrr 

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Posted 2012-December-06, 22:46

View Postmike777, on 2012-December-05, 13:35, said:

My guess is this is more about the fans experience and parties and how the show looks on tv, not who gets killed or injured on the field...no one really cares.

Keep in mind the big drivers here are:
violence
money
gambling
parties



View Postbillw55, on 2012-December-06, 07:36, said:

... and alcohol. Perhaps not sold in the stadium (I'm not sure about this) but definitely part of the tailgating and parties.

The only way to get postseason games up north is for them to start building enclosable stadiums.


yeah, it has nothing to do with the fact that college football is a HUGE part of southern culture and everything to do with violence and gambling and alcohol. you guys are geniuses.
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#59 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-December-06, 23:09

lol
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#60 User is offline   jdeegan 

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Posted 2012-December-18, 08:21

:P Here in bigD we have an immensely wise local sports guru who goes by the nom de guerre of Grandpa Urine. His take is that all of the other conferences have at least a few token restrictions on the recruiting and retaining of student athletes. This is why the SEC is inherently better at fielding top level college football squads.

Some examples of rules often ignored:

(1) the student athlete recruit has to be able to read and write.

(2) tenured faculty is not obligated to change the student athlete's grades upon request.

(3) local law enforcement's first phone call must be to a designated university official whenever a student athlete is involved,

(4) sponsors of student athletes must obey certain recruiting rules, and payments to student athletes must be in line with sports community norms.

It is part of the cultural heritage of the South that most of the rules shown above, as well as many others I have not personally witnessed and hence not listed, are often ignored. The reason for all of this is something most Southerners understand in their bones, but it is darn near impossible to explain to outsiders (except, possibly in places like Northern Ireland) why it is a good thing.
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