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Lead against 3NT Which major?

#1 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2012-August-03, 20:05

All white, you hold:

JT763
KJ8
75
542

1-2
2NT-3NT

What do you lead? Would it make a difference if you're playing MP's or IMP's?

View Postwyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the 3.


View Postrbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#2 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2012-August-03, 20:34

low spade
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#3 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2012-August-03, 21:04

I prefer the J of , second choice 6 of .

I would be less enthusiastic about falsecarding with another opening lead.

I do not like the idea of leading from the major tenace in, would lead J of at gunpoint, if I believed gunman was serious.

As bad would be to lead one of their minor suits, perhaps opener has a three card .
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#4 User is offline   Siegmund 

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Posted 2012-August-04, 00:07

Spade seems clear. I expect the hearts to provide at least one and possibly two entries. The time you don't lead your long suit is when you expect to have no entry to it.
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#5 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2012-August-04, 03:20

S for me. No doubt the K of H was the killing lead else this would not be posted.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#6 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2012-August-04, 07:44

assuming we have a realistic chance to defeat this p probably has around 10
hcp and was silenced so they are unlikley to have a very distributional hand.
The hearts are unlikley to provide timely entries so our lead needs to hit where
p has some goods and fast (clubs split dia finesses are in favor of opps etc)

A spade seems to fit the description the best and I lean toward the spade J since it
offers a bit of extra protection against declarer having A9x with say Qx in dummy. If
we can prevent declarer from taking 2 spade tricks our odds of setting go up
dramatically. By holding the opps to 1 spade winner our heart holding now starts
to stand out as a strong entry possibility.
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#7 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2012-August-04, 08:30

View Postthe hog, on 2012-August-04, 03:20, said:

S for me. No doubt the K of H was the killing lead else this would not be posted.

Probably J rather than K, I'm leading a spade also
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#8 User is offline   Hanoi5 

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Posted 2012-August-05, 11:06

Well I thought I was gonna get more support, so I simulated 100 hands and it turns out a spade is a 'safer' lead (it usually gives more tricks to the defense) but they are both as likely to defeat the contract. Maybe a larger sample will show a spade defeats it more often but it won't be by such a large percentage.

Hearts were not a suit to develop so I'm not so sure how often we'd have two entries from it.

So I guess you should usually lead a spade, unless 'you're feeling lucky, punk'.

View Postwyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:

Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the 3.


View Postrbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:

Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win


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#9 User is offline   Quantumcat 

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Posted 2012-August-05, 18:38

If a heart was the killing lead, partner might have overcalled 1.
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#10 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2012-August-05, 20:29

View PostQuantumcat, on 2012-August-05, 18:38, said:

If a heart was the killing lead, partner might have overcalled 1.

There might have been problems with that, unless he corrected to 2H.
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#11 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2012-August-05, 20:55

View PostCyberyeti, on 2012-August-04, 08:30, said:

Probably J rather than K, I'm leading a spade also


Not necessarily. Give pd 5H to the Q and an entry.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#12 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2012-August-05, 21:08

If I am declarer, the diamond 7 will be the best shot. But, OP is not leading against my 4=4=3=2 guaranteed distribution.
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#13 User is offline   Quantumcat 

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Posted 2012-August-05, 23:21

View Postaguahombre, on 2012-August-05, 20:29, said:

There might have been problems with that, unless he corrected to 2H.

Sorry! It's obvious now if we are on lead we must have been the ones to bid over 1. I should check my facts before posting in future :-(
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