[Hanoi5]

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[inquiry]

Seems like a couple of things to consider. Do you want to find out about the heart position before you play spades? The safest way to play spades for one loser is ♠A and then run the ♠J, the best way to play spades for no loser, is to play West for ♠Q doubleton or tripleton.

So option one is this ♦k, ♣A, ♦A, ♥QUEEN. If the heart queen wins, cash ♠A then ♣K (discard last low spade) then play ♠J planning on running it if not covered. IF East covers the heart QUEEN, win, spade ace, run the ♠J. If the ♥ finesse loses to the king, then you will play spades the other way around (small to the jack).

A 2nd option is to try to drop the ♣Q in three rounds and find trumps 3-2. This line is win diamond King, cash club ace, diamond to dummy ruff a club, spade king, spade Ace, club KING. IF the queen falls, then you can pitch last heart on the club JACK, and just give up a spade. If the queen does not fall, you fall back on the heart finesse.

An exercise for someone else is to figure out which of these lines is best, but for me, I go with the first line listed above.

[keylime]

The lead is interesting to me.

Looking at the hand it feels like one hand is 3-4-4-2, so I'd play along those lines and I suspect the QC is with length; so I'll play LHO with the 2-2-4-5 hand with the QS doubleton and KH doubleton, due to them not wanting to lead a heart (solves a guess), a club (known suit), or a trump (solves a guess).

[gnasher]

 inquiry, on 2012-July-23, 21:04, said:

A 2nd option is to try to drop the ♣Q in three rounds and find trumps 3-2. This line is win diamond King, cash club ace, diamond to dummy ruff a club, spade king, spade Ace, club KING. IF the queen falls, then you can pitch last heart on the club JACK, and just give up a spade. If the queen does not fall, you fall back on the heart finesse.

With that sequence of plays, if ♣K gets ruffed, you now can't take the heart finesse. Also, it's possible to delay the decision about the trump suit until you know whether ♣Q is coming down.

I would play ♦K, ♣A, diamond to dummy, ♣K, club ruff (with the 9, but see below), and then:
- If ♣Q drops, play two top spades and then the winning club.
- If the ♣Q doesn't drop, take a spade finesse. If the spade finesse loses, and they don't now promote a trump, I can use ♠A as an entry to take the heart finesse.
- If the third round of clubs is overruffed, take a spade finesse and then a heart finesse.

Edit: If this were a nightmare rather than a bridge hand, this is what would happen: after I'd ruffed the third round of clubs with the 9 and the queen hadn't fallen, I'd play a spade to the 10, jack and queen. RHO would play back the last club, I would ruff low, and LHO would overruff with the 6.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2012-July-24, 02:18

[Phil]

 gnasher, on 2012-July-24, 02:08, said:

With that sequence of plays, if ♣K gets ruffed, you now can't take the heart finesse. Also, it's possible to delay the decision about the trump suit until you know whether ♣Q is coming down.

I would play ♦K, ♣A, diamond to dummy, ♣K, club ruff (with the 9, but see below), and then:
- If ♣Q drops, play two top spades and then the winning club.
- If the ♣Q doesn't drop, take a spade finesse. If the spade finesse loses, and they don't now promote a trump, I can use ♠A as an entry to take the heart finesse.
- If the third round of clubs is overruffed, take a spade finesse and then a heart finesse.

Edit: If this were a nightmare rather than a bridge hand, this is what would happen: after I'd ruffed the third round of clubs with the 9 and the queen hadn't fallen, I'd play a spade to the 10, jack and queen. RHO would play back the last club, I would ruff low, and LHO would overruff with the 6.

It would be a neat false card for West to drop the ♣Q on the 3rd round from QTxx xxx xx QTxx.

[phil_20686]

I would win in hand, unblock the club ace and play a spade to the J.

This is an interesting trump position, as even if the finesse works, you might have a loser vs 4-1 spades. The spade finesse gives me an extra dummy entry to ruff out the clubs. If it wins ruff a club cross to the ace of spades ruff a third club with the 9 and cash the KS.

If it loses I need the heart finesse. I dont see any other realistic way to combine a 4-1 trump break with the extra chance in clubs.

[rhm]

 phil_20686, on 2012-July-24, 11:17, said:

I would win in hand, unblock the club ace and play a spade to the J.

This is an interesting trump position, as even if the finesse works, you might have a loser vs 4-1 spades. The spade finesse gives me an extra dummy entry to ruff out the clubs. If it wins ruff a club cross to the ace of spades ruff a third club with the 9 and cash the KS.

If it loses I need the heart finesse. I dont see any other realistic way to combine a 4-1 trump break with the extra chance in clubs.

I also think this line is best.
But different to what you claim the extra chance in clubs in fact comes only into play when trumps are 4-1, but the queen onside.
It is not needed when you have no trump loser.
When East shows shows out on the second spade, ruff a second club and play king of spade, spade.
Provided West follows in clubs and clubs are 4-3 you are home. No return hurts you.
However if West is 4=2=5=2 and overruffs the third club and leads back a diamond you are down even if the heart finesse would have worked.
Still the best chance for 12 tricks. If West overruffs he will usually have 3 cards in hearts allowing you to try the heart finesse.
It also works if West has the singleton spade queen. If after the second club ruff, clubs break, go to the diamond ace and feed East high clubs.

Rainer Herrmann

[rhm]

 inquiry, on 2012-July-23, 21:04, said:

Seems like a couple of things to consider. Do you want to find out about the heart position before you play spades? The safest way to play spades for one loser is ♠A and then run the ♠J, the best way to play spades for no loser, is to play West for ♠Q doubleton or tripleton.

So option one is this ♦k, ♣A, ♦A, ♥QUEEN. If the heart queen wins, cash ♠A then ♣K (discard last low spade) then play ♠J planning on running it if not covered. IF East covers the heart QUEEN, win, spade ace, run the ♠J. If the ♥ finesse loses to the king, then you will play spades the other way around (small to the jack).

A 2nd option is to try to drop the ♣Q in three rounds and find trumps 3-2. This line is win diamond King, cash club ace, diamond to dummy ruff a club, spade king, spade Ace, club KING. IF the queen falls, then you can pitch last heart on the club JACK, and just give up a spade. If the queen does not fall, you fall back on the heart finesse.

An exercise for someone else is to figure out which of these lines is best, but for me, I go with the first line listed above.

Your logic is impeccable but for some other hand.
Playing the spades as you suggest brings only a small net improvement of 2.83% compared to the trump finesse. (net gain singleton queen with East)
Playing the heart queen before drawing trumps can expose you to a heart ruff, if West has 5 hearts to the king.
The chance for that is already more than twice as high.

Rainer Herrmann

[wanoff]

 rhm, on 2012-July-24, 11:55, said:

I also think this line is best. The clubs can be established if West has 4 trumps. When East shows out on the second spade ruff a second club and play King of spade, spade.
Provided West follows in clubs and clubs are 4-3 you are home. No return hurts you.
However if West is 4=2=5=2 and overruffs the third club and leads back a diamond you are down even if the heart finesse would have worked.
But if West overruffs he will usually have 3 cards in hearts allowing you to try the heart finesse.
Still the best chance for 12 tricks.

Rainer Herrmann

Fortunately I had the back of a fag packet available and Gnashers line looks far better.
You can reduce the problem to just considering trumps and clubs. This chance with your line is trumps 4-1 (W) or 3-2 (Q right) with clubs 4-3 ..about 8.5% + 21%.
But the chance a la Gnasher is QxxC and trumps 3-2 or QxxxC and trumps 3-2 (Q right)... about 27% + 12%. Both lines have other chances.

Note, once the QC didn't fall and the JS was finessed, the 4th club is ruffed high.
The 4252 bit lost me, as the alternative line covers this (though I'd play for trumps 3-2)

[Zelandakh]

 wanoff, on 2012-July-24, 16:16, said:

Fortunately I had the back of a fag packet available and Gnashers line looks far better.

For Americans reading this, please note that a fag packet is the box you keep your cigarettes in.

[rhm]

 wanoff, on 2012-July-24, 16:16, said:

Fortunately I had the back of a fag packet available and Gnashers line looks far better.
You can reduce the problem to just considering trumps and clubs. This chance with your line is trumps 4-1 (W) or 3-2 (Q right) with clubs 4-3 ..about 8.5% + 21%.
But the chance a la Gnasher is QxxC and trumps 3-2 or QxxxC and trumps 3-2 (Q right)... about 27% + 12%. Both lines have other chances.

Note, once the QC didn't fall and the JS was finessed, the 4th club is ruffed high.
The 4252 bit lost me, as the alternative line covers this (though I'd play for trumps 3-2)

Sorry, but your comparative analysis does not hold water.
The slam is not as good as it looks. The chances for success are hard to compute, particularly for Gnasher's line.

If my computations are right my line will win a little bit over 60% of the time:
I win when trumps break and West has the queen 34%
I win when trumps break, but East has the queen and the heart king 17%
I estimate to win at least 80% of the time West has the trump queen fourth or singleton, which comes to 11%
This gives my line 62%

Gnasher's line is hard to compute.
That the queen of clubs drops tripleton is 27%, but he, as he himself observes, creates additional serious risks when the queen does not drop, for example when East has the spade queen and the club queen with length.
He also looses to almost all 4-1 breaks when the club queen does drop tripleton.
This means that Gnasher's line does not improve much over 68% even in the fortunate and unlikely case when the club queen does drop.
It is unclear whether trying to drop the club queen shows a net benefit, but my gut feeling tells me the whole line adds up to less.

My 4=2=5=2 was referring to the following layout

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My line

♦K;♣A;♠J;♣ruff;♠A;second ♣ruff:

West would now overruff and return a diamond to the ace.
Even though the heart finesse wins, I can not make the contract now, since West has still a high trump and I can not come to hand in time to draw it.

Rainer Herrmann