[SimonFa]

I can't decide if I got lucky or subconsciously figured the best line on this deal. I certainly didn't consciously figure it out and even with a bit more time and some text books I'm not sure of the best way to approach this problem.

MPs, W v R, South deals

♠ QT95
♥ KJT832
♦ 8
♣ J5

♠ 743
♥ AQ74
♦ AQ2
♣ K93

1NT (2C) 2D (P)
2H (P) 3H (P)
4H AP

2C is Cap showing a 6 card suit.

Play starts
♣ 2JA3
♣ QK65

I suppose you don't have to make the decision at this point but I wanted to end up in the correct hand for the finesse after drawing trumps.

The way I saw it LHO is most likely to have Diamonds, he could have spades but I would expect him to bid over 2H? Which makes the Diamond finesse probably less than 50% if not approaching 0%.

But what are the odds of playing Spades for only 2 losers are they worse than the Diamond finesse?

When I drew trumps ending up in hand LHO had 1H and and discarded 6D.

In the end I played 3S from hand intending to cover JS or play 9S if LHO ducked. I also thought I might get a chance at the Diamond finesse if RHO had JS stiff or didn't return a Spade for some reason.

Anyway, if anyone would like to show how this problem should be approached, especially if you don't have the inference from LHOs 2C bid, I would be most grateful.

Thanks in advance,


Simon

PS LHO had ♠AJx and ♦KJxxxx

[inquiry]

Lefty will not have 6♠, not because he didn't bid over 2♥, but because with six to akj, he would have started ace or king at trick one. Therefore lefty has six diamonds (or more, of course).

[Stephen Tu]

The way to look at this problem is to observe that the diamond hook doesn't really help you much at all, because if it wins, all you get to discard is your 4th spade, which you were going to ruff. You are still left with 3 potential spade losers.

Spades you can play for two losers whenever the J is onside, which is 50% absent info from the bidding/play. The only time the diamond hook really helps is if your RHO has AJ or KJ doubleton of spades, and you combine the diamond hook with eliminating the minors and then throwing RHO in for an eventual ruff-sluff. It's easy to see that this is incredibly remote compared to just playing LHO for J of spades. Also, you have enough trumps on this hand that you actually can and should play for the elimination *without* risking the diamond hook using a dummy reversal line; you can ruff your minors high in dummy, drawing trumps back to hand as transport, get back with a third trump, and then play a spade up. You score 4 trump tricks in hand, 2 minor suit high card winners, 3 ruffs for 9. Then you score either the SQ or another trick via ruff-sluff, on the hands where the opps can't take 3 spade tricks in one go.

[Mbodell]

Based on the play to the first 4 tricks RHO is very, very likely to be 3=1=6=3 (unless they lead low from two small). If he is, then based on the shape LHO will have the spade J 50% of the time. You gain some extra chances with LHO having AK tight (maybe 2=1=7=3 or 2=1=6=4). As has been pointed out, an elimination in the minors would be even better because you'd win whenever LHO had Hx in spades, but that seems unlikely based on the play to the first 4 tricks.

[Cyberyeti]

 Mbodell, on 2012-July-16, 21:18, said:

... an elimination in the minors would be even better because you'd win whenever LHO had Hx in spades, but that seems unlikely based on the play to the first 4 tricks.

Am I missing something, LHO with Ax/Kx can see this coming, and flies his top honour and plays another one, so it only beats Jx, which you beat with small to the 9 anyway or AK stiff. The elimination is slightly better, but only by a tiny bit if opps are awake.

[Quantumcat]

 inquiry, on 2012-July-16, 16:24, said:

Lefty will not have 6♠, not because he didn't bid over 2♥, but because with six to akj, he would have started ace or king at trick one. Therefore lefty has six diamonds (or more, of course).

Good point - shows a skill that intermediates+ take for granted but some beginners still need to think about - when you make a picture in your head about the unseen hands, always check if the opponents' play up to that point is consistent with the picture. If not, throw it out and try again.