[AyunuS]

http://tinyurl.com/7wvfc5x

Not only only 15 HCP on a 1NT opener, but also not a good fit if its partner seemingly has exactly 5 hearts. If it's just going to always go to 6NT after the 4NT bid then what would even be the point of the 4NT bid? This just seems like it can't be right to me.

[dwar0123]

This is a very instructive hand on how gib decides its bids.

It doesn't look at its points and bid accordingly. It takes the definitions of his partners hand and creates random hands for all 3 hands that it can't see that fit the definitions of everyone's bid and then for each random hand it plays double dummy and see's if it can make. If over many random hands, he makes 6n often enough, it bids.

How many points the gib has in his own hand is mostly irrelevant.

Often, when gib is caught bidding poorly, the fault lies not with the GIB that did the poor bid, but with a bad definition that gib was using to create simulations that were not realistic(Never make a bid that is described as 25+ total points!)

It doesn't actually appear that the definition here is the problem, just for whatever reason gib often made 6n with his hand opposite his simulated partner. Could be the potentially running 5 card suit as well as quite a few 10, and 9's.

[AyunuS]

Thanks for the info. as I didn't realize these bids were done by simulations. Also I noticed that you live right by where I do.=)

[Stephen Tu]

I have sympathy for GIB here. It has HQJ, which are huge, and more often than not create 5 heart trick (partner way more often have AKxxx than ATxxx on this kind of auction). Even here the K could have been onside and it making after your highly questionable spade lead (lead 4th best from longest/strongest is for leading vs. 4nt and lower, when attempting to build multiple tricks in the suit led, not vs. 6nt, where you are too often removing guess or giving trick!). Partner could have the 9 of hearts where then heart suit runs when K onside doubleton as well as tripleton.

It also has 5 cd spade suit which can turn into 4-5 trick if partner come up with qx/ax/AQ of spade which is not impossible this auction. CT is also a card that creates extra chances when partner's clubs are KQxx rather than KQJx and he has that extra point somewhere else.

People who just go by 15 hcp = automatic not accept aren't thinking straight. You do that if auction goes like 1nt-4nt and you have no info. Here you have more info. Honor location often just as/more important than total HCP count.

[barmar]

Just to confirm, GIB did make this bid based on simulations. The book bid with the East hand is Pass.

[pigpenz]

sort of like board 119 in the finals on vugraph
you have 20 hcp tied up in 2 suits where you can only take 7 tricks
they were even unluckier they could only take 6 tricks