# BBO Discussion Forums: Why was 16 HCP chosen as the magical number to show extras? - BBO Discussion Forums

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## Why was 16 HCP chosen as the magical number to show extras? Just curious

### #21Statto

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Statistics, but not massaged by the media.

Posted 2012-May-18, 19:20

32519, on 2012-May-10, 04:27, said:

So why was 16 HCP chosen as the magical number? Just curious!

16/17+ HCP means you'll have game on approx half the time.
A perfection of means, and confusion of aims, seems to be our main problem – Albert Einstein
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### #2232519

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Posted 2012-June-04, 04:11

32519, on 2012-May-10, 04:27, said:

Big systems open 1 to show 16+ HCP.
Big systems do the same.
Then you have Gazzilli which uses an artificial 2 over 1M-1NT to show extras.
Serious / Non-Serious 3NT in a 2/1 auction also tends to show 16+.
A normal reverse bid also shows 16+ HCP.
So why was 16 HCP chosen as the magical number? Just curious!

I’ll have a shot at answering my own question.

As bridge bidding became increasingly aggressive, the number of combined HCP required for game in 3NT (or 4 of a major) has in some circles between reduced to 24 (I believe it once stood at 25 HCP). So with 40 HCP in the pack, on average each player will be dealt 10. The 16 HCP comes from being dealt your own average quota of 10 plus a further 2 from each of the other 3 players.

barmar, on 2012-May-10, 08:43, said:

A related question: Why is 8 the magic number for a positive response? It's a game force, but 16+8 is only 24, which isn't generally considered enough for game unless you have some additional distributional features (or you're Meckwell, who seem to bid game with most 23 counts).

Those who have dropped the combined HCP for game in 3NT or 4 of a major to 24 can convey the message in a single bid from each partner.
Opener: I have my quota of 10 HCP plus a further 2 from each of the other 3 players.
Responder: Nice to know! I still have the balance of my 10 HCP. Let’s push for game now.
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### #23hrothgar

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Posted 2012-June-04, 05:57

32519, on 2012-June-04, 04:11, said:

I’ll have a shot at answering my own question.

As bridge bidding became increasingly aggressive, the number of combined HCP required for game in 3NT (or 4 of a major) has in some circles between reduced to 24 (I believe it once stood at 25 HCP). So with 40 HCP in the pack, on average each player will be dealt 10. The 16 HCP comes from being dealt your own average quota of 10 plus a further 2 from each of the other 3 players.

Whatever makes you happy...
Alderaan delenda est
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### #24han

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Posted 2012-June-04, 07:04

hrothgar, on 2012-June-04, 05:57, said:

Whatever makes you happy...

Well said. Also, note that 21-5 = 16.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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### #25gwnn

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Posted 2012-June-11, 00:15

1 was clearly too little and 81 would have been impossible.
... and I can prove it with my usual, flawless logic.
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### #26han

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Posted 2012-June-11, 08:53

Nice gwnn!
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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### #27helene_t

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Posted 2012-June-12, 06:18

han, on 2012-June-04, 07:04, said:

Well said. Also, note that 21-5 = 16.

Interesting. Maybe it is related to the following:
According to burkes' law, a 2-5-6 shape should be opened at the game level. Assuming that your own hand strength interacts with partner's multiplicatively, you need the square root of that to propose game. sqrt(256)=16.
The version of 2-way Stayman that I play was created by a couple of duffers named Soloway and Passell, but despite that it seems to work well. --- ArtK78
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### #28manudude03

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Posted 2012-June-12, 07:55

The reason I've always believed is that with a fit, you will need around 24 points combined for game. If opener has 16, the average of the other hands is 8, 16+8=24.
Wayne Somerville
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