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JEC match 2, a defence I was happy but didnīt succeed

#1 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2012-February-24, 03:37

http://www.bridgebas...6225-1330041602

I tried to discard a diamond to muddy the waters, and it should had made it harded for declarer to go right. Here is the end position where 3 players (North, East and South) have pitched a diamond


xx
AJx


xx
9xx


Now declarer plays a trump wich RHO must win with last trump and he exits 7, LHO playing K

Declarer should duck this and then guess next over 10 continuation, but sadly he just raised with the ace first :(
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#2 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-February-24, 09:39

Comparing these:
(1) Duck, then finesse
(2) Duck, then play the ace
(3) Win, then play one back (low or high)

(1) gains over (3) against HHT-xx and H-HTxx (3 combinations).
(3) gains over (1) against HT-Hxx and HTx-Hx (4 combinations).

(2) gains over (3) against H-HTxx (2 combinations).
(3) gains over (2) against HT-Hxx HHx-10x (4 combinations).

So (3) seems the best of these, and I agree with declarer.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#3 User is offline   wank 

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Posted 2012-February-24, 09:41

only 4 diamonds are outstanding gnasher
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#4 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-February-24, 11:18

Oh, I see, sorry. He should still get it right, though: he knows you're defending double dummy, so he shouldn't let Fluffy's discard talk him into an inferior line. Still, it was clever to find a way to give him a reason to go wrong.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#5 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2012-February-24, 11:52

My father just told me, best is to win A before playing hearts,
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#6 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-February-24, 12:43

View PostFluffy, on 2012-February-24, 11:52, said:

My father just told me, best is to win A before playing hearts,

It's a good idea to listen to your parents, but you shouldn't always believe them.

When is this supposed to gain? It seems to lose on quite a lot of layouts, eg whenever North has the guarded KQ.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#7 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2012-February-24, 18:02

it wins when RHO has discarded from doubleton since now you have no guess left, and it wins when they are 2-2 and when LHO has stiff honnor, loses only when RHO has KQ third (4th originally)

perhaps you though about cashing A earlier, I said hearts when I wanted to mean heart on the end position.
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#8 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-February-25, 02:46

View PostFluffy, on 2012-February-24, 18:02, said:

it wins when RHO has discarded from doubleton since now you have no guess left, and it wins when they are 2-2 and when LHO has stiff honnor, loses only when RHO has KQ third (4th originally)

Compared with ducking the first heart, it also loses to an original H-HTxx.

All this talk of a guess is making me ill. Two tricks ago we didn't have a guess: we knew that we were going to exit with a heart and then win the first diamond. Now a strong player who knows the entire hand has thrown a diamond, and you think we have a guess?

The possible lines are:
- Duck the first diamond; then play the ace. This retains all of our original chances, and gives us the extra chance that the suit is H-HTxx.
- Cash the ace before exiting. That loses one of the original chances (x-KQ10x or T-KQxx) and the new chance (H-HTxx). In exchange, you get the extra "chance" that RHO, knowing he is about to be put on lead, has discarded a diamond from xx or H10x. Are you really arguing that we should play for him to have done that?
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#9 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2012-February-25, 05:55

KQ10-xx also.
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