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An interesting suit combination

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2012-February-03, 19:02

965 opposite K1072 with plenty of entries to both hands. You need to avoid three losers, and make one trick only.
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#2 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-03, 19:59

I would play low to the 7 then low to the 10.
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#3 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2012-February-04, 01:58

View PostHighLow21, on 2012-February-03, 19:59, said:

I would play low to the 7 then low to the 10.


I know what u are trying to do, u are playing 8 and either Q or J to be onside, the problem is if thats the case dont expect opponents to help you. Assume J appeared when u play small towards KT72, u covered with K and lost to Ace. J can be from stiff, J8, QJ8 QJ8x QJ J8x Jx Not saying u are wrong i didnt calculate the odds, just telling you that u need to be aware of different choice of starts by RHO when u played small from dummy and J or Q appeared.
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#4 User is offline   CSGibson 

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Posted 2012-February-04, 03:10

Run the 5, covering what RHO plays if he covers, and then run the 6. I win 1 trick by power if the A, Q, J, or 8 is onside.

Edit: I did not see "don't lose 3 tricks". My rambling is irrelevent.

Two lines come to mind: Low to the Ten or finessing against the 8 initially.

finessing against the 8 is necessary when Q8x or J8x or Q8xx or J8xx is onside low to the Ten initially is necessary with QJx onside, or Qx or Jx onside. Without doing calculations, my inclination would be to say that planning on playing low to the Ten then low to the K is better.

Edit2: finesse the 8 also loses to QJ/QJx offsides, assuming the plan is to try and pick up Q8x etc
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#5 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2012-February-04, 05:53

low to T low to K win 50% A on the right,+12% Hx on the right and 12% for QJ(x) on the right so its about 75% I think its going to be tough to beat. I was thinking starting with the 9 but losing to stiff Q/J or losing to Qx/Jx is too much.
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#6 User is offline   CSGibson 

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Posted 2012-February-04, 12:48

OK, I have more time, let's analyze the relevant scenerios

Finesse the 8 ------- Scenerio (frequency) --------- Low to the 10
Wins ---------------- J8x onside (2) --------------- Loses
Wins ---------------- Q8x onside (2) --------------- Loses
Wins ---------------- J8xx onside (1) -------------- Loses
Wins ---------------- Q8xx onside (1) -------------- Loses
Loses --------------- QJx onside (2) --------------- Wins
Loses --------------- A8x onside (2) --------------- Wins
Loses --------------- Qx onside (2) ---------------- Wins
Loses --------------- Jx onside (2) ---------------- Wins
Loses --------------- Axx onside (1)* -------------- Wins
Loses --------------- A8xx onside (1) -------------- Wins

*Axx onside 'loses' to finessing against the 8 when the opponent wins the first round with the J or Q instead of cheaply with the 8

I don't think I'm missing any relevant scenerios, but if I am so be it. I see 6 combinations where finesse the 8 wins, and 10 where low to the 10 wins. I'm not sure whether relative frequencies of 4-2 or 3-3 splits matter, but I don't think this is close enough for those sorts of adjustments even if they are relevant.
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#7 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2012-February-04, 13:06

You've missed QJxx onside.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#8 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2012-February-04, 16:15

View PostCSGibson, on 2012-February-04, 12:48, said:

I don't think I'm missing any relevant scenerios, but if I am so be it. I see 6 combinations where finesse the 8 wins, and 10 where low to the 10 wins. I'm not sure whether relative frequencies of 4-2 or 3-3 splits matter, but I don't think this is close enough for those sorts of adjustments even if they are relevant.

Yes I think low to the 10 is right. QJxx, which gnasher points out was missing, improves the line. I got it wrong at the table.
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#9 User is offline   CSGibson 

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Posted 2012-February-05, 02:11

View Postgnasher, on 2012-February-04, 13:06, said:

You've missed QJxx onside.


Thanks
Chris Gibson
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