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Beating 3NT when 2C opener is exposed

#1 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-03, 13:38

This hand happened to me recently (I was the partner of the exposed defender's hand and was saddened by his error at trick 2). I submitted it to Ben, i.e. Inquiry, for possible inclusion in his B/I Defender's Play series. He asked that I post it in the Forums.

Here goes my first attempt at using Hand Editor:


You lead K at trick 1. What do you do at trick 2 and more importantly, why?

A/E responders, please hide your replies in a "Spoiler" tag.

Thanks!
-Tate
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#2 User is offline   mr1303 

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Posted 2012-February-03, 14:47

Spoiler

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#3 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-03, 14:56

View Postmr1303, on 2012-February-03, 14:47, said:

Spoiler



A reasonable point, but a losing action on this hand.

Still, go with the prompt --> after leading K at trick 1, what do you do at trick 2?
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#4 User is offline   bd71 

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Posted 2012-February-03, 15:05

What spades do partner and declarer play at T1, and what are our signalling methods?
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#5 User is offline   ArcLight 

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Posted 2012-February-03, 15:41

Trick 2 - lead a diamond, hope pard has the K and Q and some length.

It looks like declarer has 4/5 clubs, a dime, 2 hearts, and a spade after your is knocked out.
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#6 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-03, 15:46

View Postbd71, on 2012-February-03, 15:05, said:

What spades do partner and declarer play at T1, and what are our signalling methods?


Good question. Declarer and partner follow with low spades. Defenders are playing standard signaling methods.
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#7 User is offline   HighLow21 

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Posted 2012-February-03, 15:48

View PostArcLight, on 2012-February-03, 15:41, said:

Trick 2 - lead a diamond, hope pard has the K and Q and some length.

It looks like declarer has 4/5 clubs, a dime, 2 hearts, and a spade after your is knocked out.


Dead on so far. Next question --> what is the probability that declarer has 5 tricks in clubs? An estimate is reasonable. Does your intuition tell yuo 4 or 5 is more likely?
There is a big difference between a good decision and a good result. Let's keep our posts about good decisions rather than "gotcha" results!
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#8 User is offline   WesleyC 

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Posted 2015-October-05, 00:53

One comment about the way you've posed the problem - you're much better to include ALL the information (including spot cards and signalling methods) so that the reader can decide what is important.

Regarding your lead choice, I agree with Mr1303 that holding an entryless hand, a small spade lead is by far the best chance. If partner held the Jx on this deal a small spade lead would've beaten the contract straight up.

However, once you have started with a top spade, things look pretty grim. I'd guess there's about a 50% chance that that clubs are running and if they are we have an uphill battle to win 5 tricks. In both cases is looks like a diamond switch is our best chance because it requires the least from partner.
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#9 User is offline   oryctolagi 

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Posted 2015-October-05, 06:50

Are we supposed to know what cards E and S played at trick 1?
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#10 User is offline   Zelandakh 

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Posted 2015-October-05, 07:04

View PostHighLow21, on 2012-February-03, 15:48, said:


View PostWesleyC, on 2015-October-05, 00:53, said:


Early candidate for Necro of the Month? :ph34r:
(-: Zel :-)

Happy New Year everyone!
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