[Phil]

awm, on 2012-May-01, 09:44, said:

Probability of holding 11-15 hcp is about 34%.

Probability of a flannery shape of 4522/45(31)/45(04) is about 2%.

Probability I have a Flannery hand is about 0.68%.

Probability someone at the table has a Flannery hand is about 2.72%.

All of the above is very rough, certainly shape and hcp are not totally independent, and it is possible for two people to have Flannery hands on the same deal, but it should be in the ballpark.

Seems like USBF must be conspiring to NOT give us Flannery hands if its only 6 of 600 deals! (joking)

I guess we all better dust off Flannery, because there's going to be a cluster of em in the next few months!

[Zelandakh]

32519, on 2012-May-01, 06:47, said:

I know you guys absolutely hate the Flannery convention but if you live in the USA the controlling bodies are almost guaranteed to include it in every big tournament. Thus far I have already seen 3 Flannery hands in the USBC.

You might also look into another fabulous convention that the "controlling bodies" are almost guaranteed to include in every big tournament. Open 1NT with any balanced hand in the range 0-37. This convention is so good there has never (to my knowledge) been a major tournament where it has not come up. Another good one is to open 1♣ with any hand of 10 or more hcp. I agree that is absolutely disgraceful that these conventions come up so often - you should boycott all American bridge events until they put it right!

[fromageGB]

Zelandakh, on 2012-May-02, 01:19, said:

You might also look into another fabulous convention that the "controlling bodies" are almost guaranteed to include in every big tournament. Open 1NT with any balanced hand in the range 0-37. This convention is so good there has never (to my knowledge) been a major tournament where it has not come up. Another good one is to open 1♣ with any hand of 10 or more hcp. I agree that is absolutely disgraceful that these conventions come up so often - you should boycott all American bridge events until they put it right!

I have the problem, playing both these conventions (it's a pity I don't play in tournaments in the USA because they are designed specifically for my conventions) that when I have a balanced hand with MORE than 10 points, which convention should apply? Should I open 1♣ or should I open 1NT?

Advice welcome. Do I need a third convention to sort this out?

[Zelandakh]

fromageGB, on 2012-May-02, 05:05, said:

Advice welcome. Do I need a third convention to sort this out?

I would suggest 1NT takes priority, shape first and all! This also has the effect of increasing the number of times the opponents can use their DONT defence, a notable aim of the controlling bodies for these events. It is unfortunate that restricting 1♣ only to unbalanced hands reduces its frequency - perhaps you could try randomly opening the odd balanced hand 1♣ anyway to maximise the convention's effect.

[Vampyr]

Yesterday afternoon at the YCBC there were no "Flannery hands", but in the evening there were two. Three if you can have 6 hearts. Four if you can have this hand:

♠ Q 6 4 3
♥ A Q J 5 4 2
♦ ---
♣ J 9 5

!

I think the controlling bodies at the YC are trying to make us all play Flannery (virtually nobody does). Quit it, Gordon!

[MickyB]

I thought the gains from Flannery were supposed to be from the negative inferences after a 1H opening...?

[mgoetze]

MickyB, on 2012-May-03, 10:56, said:

I thought the gains from Flannery were supposed to be from the negative inferences after a 1H opening...?

You obviously haven't been reading 32519's posts carefully enough.