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What do you think about the various possible leads?
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Lead against doubled partscore
#1
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Posted 2011-August-27, 14:54
What do you think about the various possible leads?
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
-- Bertrand Russell
-- Bertrand Russell
#2
- World International Master without a clue
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Posted 2011-August-27, 15:01
My feeling is that the player with the biggest average heart lenght in the table is declarer, so althou I would want to lead my suit to tap declarer and get my hand high, its highly unattactive from AJ.
Leading a trump to avoid heart ruffs is gambling too much when we are losing a trick by leading the suit so often.
Tapping myself is something I don't want, so a club is also out, the only think left is ♠A.
Leading a trump to avoid heart ruffs is gambling too much when we are losing a trick by leading the suit so often.
Tapping myself is something I don't want, so a club is also out, the only think left is ♠A.
#3
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Posted 2011-August-27, 23:28
I would lead small ♦, but Fluffy is very convincing 
Yehudit Hasin
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#4
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Posted 2011-August-28, 01:32
the various leads? ok
spade and club seem fine
heart seems bad and useless
diamond seems likely to blow a trick
I would try a club, to score a small trump from hand. After that the plan might be to pull trumps.
spade and club seem fine
heart seems bad and useless
diamond seems likely to blow a trick
I would try a club, to score a small trump from hand. After that the plan might be to pull trumps.
#5
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Posted 2011-August-28, 13:56
We are not leading hearts from this holding...too much danger of establishing winners for declarer.
Leading spades seems equally, if not more, useless. Declarer will not be long in spades, and we are probably blowing a tempo.
Trump is wrong from this holding and probably not necessary immediately.
This leaves a club, which has a lot of things going for it.
It won't usually blow a trick on the go....indeed, it is probably partner's longest suit (he counts out as approximately 4=2=2=5). We may be getting a chance to ditch our small spade, we may be getting a necessary ruff, we may in the fullness of time enjoy partner leading high clubs through declarer, to promote our trump spot, and we may be allowing partner to effectively lead a trump through early.
In summary, every suit other than clubs bears with it more risk than does the club suit and, as far as I can see, the club suit has considerable upside as well. So I think it is clearly right.
Leading spades seems equally, if not more, useless. Declarer will not be long in spades, and we are probably blowing a tempo.
Trump is wrong from this holding and probably not necessary immediately.
This leaves a club, which has a lot of things going for it.
It won't usually blow a trick on the go....indeed, it is probably partner's longest suit (he counts out as approximately 4=2=2=5). We may be getting a chance to ditch our small spade, we may be getting a necessary ruff, we may in the fullness of time enjoy partner leading high clubs through declarer, to promote our trump spot, and we may be allowing partner to effectively lead a trump through early.
In summary, every suit other than clubs bears with it more risk than does the club suit and, as far as I can see, the club suit has considerable upside as well. So I think it is clearly right.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
#6
- Andy Bowles
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Posted 2011-August-28, 14:32
I'd lead a low trump. They have a combined 16-count and no great fit, so whatever tricks they are going to get will come from the trump suit.
I don't see why we should expect this to cost a trick. For one thing, partner may have an honour, or declare may misguess. Even if dummy has AJx, I haven't given them anything they couldn't have got for the themselves, and if they end up having to ruff a heart with the ace I will still get two trump tricks.
I don't see why we should expect this to cost a trick. For one thing, partner may have an honour, or declare may misguess. Even if dummy has AJx, I haven't given them anything they couldn't have got for the themselves, and if they end up having to ruff a heart with the ace I will still get two trump tricks.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#7
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Posted 2011-August-28, 15:50
Thanks for the interesting thoughts, everyone. Here is the deal as I played it:
3 people, including me and one other forum regular, faced this auction, and all lead the ace of hearts. Interestingly, the double dummy analysis says this is by far the worst lead for down 3, a low heart getting down 4, a spade down 5 and any minor down 6. OK, that's resulting, but I figured there might be something flawed about my (non)thinking which lead to the ♥A. Bravo to mikeh for placing partner's distribution exactly.
3 people, including me and one other forum regular, faced this auction, and all lead the ace of hearts. Interestingly, the double dummy analysis says this is by far the worst lead for down 3, a low heart getting down 4, a spade down 5 and any minor down 6. OK, that's resulting, but I figured there might be something flawed about my (non)thinking which lead to the ♥A. Bravo to mikeh for placing partner's distribution exactly.
"One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision"
-- Bertrand Russell
-- Bertrand Russell
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