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What level ?

Poll: Do you bid : (36 member(s) have cast votes)

Do you bid :

  1. 1S (24 votes [66.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 66.67%

  2. 2S (12 votes [33.33%])

    Percentage of vote: 33.33%

  3. 3S (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. Pass (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. Other (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#21 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2009-October-09, 08:51

jdonn, on Oct 9 2009, 02:53 AM, said:

The logic of 2 is still absolutely escaping me. What about AK K and no shortness is preemptive? Why can't we still have game?

Btw what is with the influx of uppercase PASSes that seem to have started while I was gone? I feel like I am being randomly shouted at.

I hope you noticed we are opposite a passed partner. With two bidding opponents. I highly doubt we have game.
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#22 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2009-October-09, 08:57

gnasher, on Oct 9 2009, 02:32 AM, said:

quiddity, on Oct 9 2009, 01:30 AM, said:

Isn't it also decent enough to worry about missing game?

That's one of the reasons that I'd overcall only 1. My partner could have a balanced 13-count, so game could well be on. Some other reasons: I wouldn't want him sacrificing, since I seem to have 2-3 defensive tricks; I'm 6322 with three small hearts; I know that their heart fit is eight cards at best.

Quote

I guess a sandwich preempt should promise some values

Now that I don't agree with. With QJ10xxxx x xx xxx it's obvious to preempt in the sandwich position.

You really wouldn't want partner to save if he thought it was right over 4H? What hands do you think would save white/white over 4H with a doubleton heart given that they are probably yarbs (they responded 1D not 1H so they probably have opening values?). I know if I was playing with you and I had QJxx xx xxx Qxxx it would not occur to me to save white/white opp a gnasher 2S overcall, but even if partner did save with that it would be right! Partner just isn't gonna save without a stiff if he has 2 defensive tricks and not many values at w/w, there is too much risk we are going down too many combined with some chance we are beating them. I would honestly like to see some 4 hand construction you could come up with where they are bidding 4H, partner is saving, and it is wrong. Admittedly you could criticize me for assuming walsh but that is very standard at least where I'm from.

Indeed I imagine if I overcalled 1S and partner bid a preemptive 3S I would instantly save over 4H if they got there.

Likewise I'm not worried about a save vs 3N since they probably won't be bidding 3N if we have 10 spades and the AK.

I would be most worried about a phantom save vs 5m, but that must be rare at these colors and partner might have overcalled 1S with some of those hands. And if he does save vs 5m it might be right, we have a lot of playing strength for our 2S bid relative to what we might have, and his #1 concern when saving is going to be that we have a good chance of going for only 300.
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#23 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2009-October-09, 09:35

Also possibly another way for us to win big by bidding 2S: If the opps have Qx opp Jxx of spades, it is very easy to sort out after a 1S overcall, and often difficult to sort out after a 2S overcall (though sometimes will time out so that it's easy).
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#24 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-October-09, 10:08

Wow Justin that was so unnecessary. How many of your former rants that it's ok to attack the idea but not the person do you want me to link to? Was that all because I used the word "absolutely"?!? I'M SORRY I DIDN'T MEAN TO EXAGERATE, I DIDN'T REALIZE THE EFFECT IT WOULD HAVE ON YOU! Tell me 1 is a stupid bid if you want (although it's not like I'm the only one bidding it!), I won't be offended, you essentially posted I made the worst bid ever the other day and I didn't mind at all. But oh my god, I don't see any logic behind a bid JUSTIN LALL chose, you can't stand for that! So then you have to make up totally hilarious claims like I love having my head in the sand, that's great coming from you! Let's do a count of who has let their mind be changed by the posts of others more over the years, I have a feeling I know who that is! But you don't have to change your mind ever, you are JUSTIN LALL, you have known everything since you were 6! And who can argue, none of us have had the honor of coming in last in the Cavendish with Zia, or having Fred tell us we would be the best player ever one day. Ok I'm speaking to the great JUSTIN LALL, I will take advantage of this rare opportunity and attempt to discuss bridge, maybe that will help me improve more over the next 5 years.

I implied this hand is not preemptive (you know, preemptive can refer to the nature of a hand, not just to the preemptive bid itself! I thought you knew that!) and you came back with a list of problems it can give the opponents. Great, I can bid 2 on any hand and they can have those problems. That doesn't change the fact this hand has lots of defense, it has an AK and the K of a suit bid on its right. You have totally ignorred your partner's decisions over 2. Maybe you think he won't make wrong decisions over your preempt with more defense than he expects, and maybe you would be right, but you will have to excuse me for thinking when you have AK and a K over the suit bid on your right you do not have the hand partner expects.

I also implied game is still likely. You make it sound like we need an opening hand with three spades for there to be game. Look, Qx AQJx Qxx xxxx, a nice fitting 11 count with a doubleton spade, game! But you would of course come back with what you just said, just because I bid 1 doesn't mean I will reach all or even most of my games. That is actually a very good point that I failed to consider! Look, I allowed myself to learn something!

But 1 has a lot more going for it too.

You might buy the hand in 1! And make 7 (or fewer) tricks!
You might be getting doubled in 2 but not in 1!
You might be getting doubled in both contracts and go down less!

I want to come up with some brilliant hilarious conclusion but I can't think of one, so I will just end by saying I have no idea who you are referring to in your brilliant hilarious conclusion. And thank you, it's awesome to be back as well!
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#25 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2009-October-09, 10:18

jdonn, on Oct 9 2009, 11:08 AM, said:

Stuff

Well I'm pleasantly surprised there was no go jump off a bridge joke :)
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#26 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-October-09, 10:23

LOL I really thought about it for my big ending, but I think the self control was good since I never even got to the point of typing it then deleting it.
"Ah, but what if you have poor/undeveloped bidding judgment and know it?!...then you better have a well-defined system."
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#27 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2009-October-09, 10:44

jdonn, on Oct 9 2009, 11:23 AM, said:

LOL I really thought about it for my big ending, but I think the self control was good since I never even got to the point of typing it then deleting it.

The truth is there is probably a coin toss difference between 1 and 2. I just think you need to be variable to keep the opponents off balance.
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#28 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2009-October-09, 11:28

Or your hands could vary, that would do as well.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#29 User is offline   dellache 

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Posted 2009-October-10, 02:41

Hi again, this is the postmortem of the board, which took place in the french national division. Actually, it was a cardplay problem.

Scoring: IMP

1 P 1 2
DBL 3 4 P
5


The play went K, 8 to the Ace, J to your King. You then play the Q, do you finesse or play for the drop ?

One of my teammates figured out that probably most of the players would not bid 2 holding the actual west hand. Moreover, they had 11 spades, and East didnot bid more than 3. Why ? Bare K ? Backing his judgement, he went for the drop instead of the "normal" finesse. And down he was.

At my table, my P bid 1, I bid 4 and they made 5.

Any blame ? (we didnot have any :rolleyes: )
FD
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#30 User is online   gwnn 

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Posted 2009-October-10, 03:38

If it was the national division I assume most people know one another so declarer should have a better idea on what their opps preempt on generally. It's difficult to say if he can be blamed - maybe this particular West would never ever bid 2S except when he's feeling crazy or maybe he didn't see the K when he bid 2s. But I would say he probably projected his own style on his LHO and that's an error. Btw they only bid to the 3 level despite the 11 trumps that might be an indication that this EW pair play random preempts that is to say they may have a 5 card
suit or (and/or??? or xor? Depends on opps) outside strength. So I blame declarer unless he has serious serious reason to know his LHO style.
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#31 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2009-October-10, 04:33

Did East really pass in second seat with 109xxx AJ10xx xx x, and then bid only 3?
If future responses could be on topic, i.e. comparing the two suggested systems, rather than some alternative nutjob method, that'd be appreciated, thanks. - MickyB
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#32 User is offline   Jlall 

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Posted 2009-October-10, 06:14

Tough one. You can probably rule out LHO ever having Kxx since that would give righty a void and surely they would have bid 4S with that. That leaves Kx or xx with LHO so you're only making a 2:1 anti percentage play.

You could argue that RHO's failure to bid 4S is an indication that he has stiff K rather than stiff small, and you could also argue that LHO is at least 2:1 to bid 1S rather than 2S with AKxxxx and Kx. Given this poll and given my general bridge knowledge I would agree with that.

The only mark against this is what gwnn said, you might just infer they bid randomly because no matter what RHO has not bidding 4S is ludicrous, so it's tough to say with any confidence that LHO is at least 2:1 to bid 1S rather than 2S with his actual hand when he might be bidding randomly.

Overall it's a tough decision. TBH I think in real life it would depend on which spot LHO played. If he played the highest spot I would hook, and if he played the lowest spot I would play for the drop.

I use this "trick" a lot in real life, maybe it seems absurd but _most_ players are not falsecarding and playing the highest spot card from xx very often.
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#33 User is offline   JLOGIC 

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Posted 2012-July-08, 01:23

!H jdonn
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#34 User is offline   lalldonn 

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Posted 2012-July-08, 16:19

He needs to learn to control his temper!
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