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your lead

#1 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2007-December-29, 16:19

Scoring: MP


Playing Matchpoints against some random club players. They are just playing standard and have an auction of:

(Dealer is E, we are S)
(1H) - p - (2C) - p
(2H) - p - (4NT) - p
(5S) - p - (6H) - All Pass.

1) What would you lead?

Don't know if this matters, but:
2)
Spoiler

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#2 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2007-December-29, 17:13

a spade
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#3 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2007-December-29, 17:34

Spade. I think this will (should?) be pretty close to unanimous.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#4 User is offline   inquiry 

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Posted 2007-December-29, 17:35


--Ben--

#5 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2007-December-29, 17:38

jdonn, on Dec 29 2007, 11:34 PM, said:

I think this will (should?) be pretty close to unanimous.

there's no such thing. In fact, it's closer to that old jewish saying: "where there's 2 jews, there's 3 opinions." :rolleyes:
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#6 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 00:15

My second highest spade.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

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#7 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 00:57

Lead my appropriate pip (4th, 3/5) according to agreement.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#8 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 07:33

See, I knew I could create a controversy here.

"Yeah, but what spade pip?"
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

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#9 User is online   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 07:49

Hi,

#1 a trump, playing MP I wont throw away tricks,
playing IMP, I would lead a spade
#2 No

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#10 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 08:46

jdonn, on Dec 29 2007, 03:34 PM, said:

Spade. I think this will (should?) be pretty close to unanimous.

I make the same prediction.
"Phil" on BBO
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#11 User is offline   ulven 

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Posted 2007-December-30, 11:36

Spade. No 2nd choice.
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#12 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 04:15

pclayton, on Dec 30 2007, 03:46 PM, said:

jdonn, on Dec 29 2007, 03:34 PM, said:

Spade. I think this will (should?) be pretty close to unanimous.

I make the same prediction.

Too late. It's now n - 1.

Just because it's matchpoints doesn't mean that the contract is cold, nor that you won't get a bad board if it makes, nor that you won't get a good board if it goes off.

p.s. to your question 2: no-one ever knows what is going on in the mind of players who bid Blackwood then start thinking.
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#13 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 05:14

Spade and i'm leading my appropriate (low) spade. Why would I want partner to win the A and then think there is no future in spades and switch? :P
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#14 User is offline   SoTired 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 07:49

low spade. hoping to catch partner with the Q and entry before all losers go away on the clubs.

By leading a spade, I only need partner to have the Q. Leading a diam, I need partner to have 2 honors.

I doubt I am throwing away a trick that can't be pitched on the clubs anyway.
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#15 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 09:03

Echognome, on Dec 31 2007, 06:14 AM, said:

Spade and i'm leading my appropriate (low) spade. Why would I want partner to win the A and then think there is no future in spades and switch? :(

You are betting that the likelihood of partner being able to figure out the falsecard when it matters multiplied by the likelihood that it matters is greater than the likelihood of Declarer being able to figure out the falsecard when it matters multiplied by the likelihood that it matters.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

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#16 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 09:47

I'd lead a diamond.

If it's really the case that we need to take our tricks right away, there are many positions where a diamond lead will work. Perhaps not as many as a spade lead, but still many positions where it works. Especially given the tempo inference that they probably have all the aces, the odds of a spade lead finding partner with A are pretty minimal.

It is very normal to start with 2 on a balanced 3-card support slam try hand. There is no compelling reason to think they have a huge source of tricks in clubs; club players will bid this way all the time with a flat 17-count and three trumps especially playing "standard" where responder has few clearly forcing heart raises available at second turn. If responder would bid this way both with a balanced hand and a distributional hand, the balanced hand is more likely. And it's matchpoints, so holding the contract to six (i.e. not giving away a free spade trick on the opening lead) might well win the board.
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#17 User is offline   keylime 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 11:57

I'm leading a low spade, the most aggressive lead I can make from this hand. I'm with Echo here; when have we defended slams off the A-K of a side suit that was cashing?
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#18 User is offline   PrecisionL 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 14:12

andy_h, on Dec 29 2007, 05:19 PM, said:

Playing Matchpoints against some random club players. They are just playing standard.
1) What would you lead?

Don't know if this matters, but:
2)
Spoiler

1) I'm leading 8 at pairs, worried about giving up a trick. Was the 2 bid lead inhibiting?

2) I'm leading a low , attitude lead - what is he tanking about?

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#19 User is offline   nick_s 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 14:57

andy_h, on Dec 29 2007, 05:19 PM, said:

Scoring: MP


Playing Matchpoints against some random club players.

1) What would you lead?

Don't know if this matters, but:
2)
Spoiler

Like most other people, I'd lead a spade.

I'm not worried about giving up a trick when playing against 'random club players' because I think we're getting a bad score if the slam makes. There's always a significant number of pairs that miss slams - no matter how obvious they are. So not giving up an overtrick is much less important than beating the slam.

Playing MPs in a quality field is different. Now a neutral lead is more attractive. I think I'd still lead a spade though.
Not an expert, just a student of the game
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#20 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2007-December-31, 15:36

I join with Ken in leading a high spade spot.

We need to lead spades because we are hoping to establish a spade trick before partner wins whatever trick he has.. and he has to have one in order for us to have a chance.

The choice of spot will often be irrelevant, but an expert partner will play us for the King anyway, if it matters, once he is on lead... in fact, he will often KNOW we hold the K from the play to the 1st trick even if we don't get a chance to signal (play suit preference in trump is one easy way)

But once in a while, we will find a situation in which we need declarer to fear that we have led top of nothing. Imagine dummy with Ax in spades and declarer with Qxx, while the club suit is AQJxxx in dummy and xx in declarer's hand.

Declarer, thinking that the spade K is offside, will see that he can make the contract, probably with an overtrick, if the club hook works, and is going down anyway if it isn't, because he thinks you have led passively. So up goes the A and down goes the contract.

Whereas, if you lead low, he is more inclined to reason that this lead affords him a 75% line of play, via one of two finesses.

BTW, only if LHO is a moron are we cashing the AK of spade, and even then, partner will likely see no reasonable alternative to returning a spade anyway.
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